A plume of smoke rose from Tehran following a reported explosion on February 28, 2026. This incident comes amid heightened tensions as the U.S. announced it has begun “major combat operations” in Iran. Investors are on edge, concerned about the wider implications for global markets.
President Donald Trump confirmed the military actions targeting key Iranian installations. Experts believe these developments could have a stronger impact on the market compared to recent geopolitical events.
Florian Weidinger, a chief investment officer, stated, “This situation is riskier than what we saw in Venezuela.” While Venezuela’s oil, primarily heavy crude, suffers from production challenges, Iran’s situation is different. Iran is situated near the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial chokepoint for oil transport. In 2025, approximately 13 million barrels of oil passed through this strait daily, which is about 31% of global seaborne crude.
Such strategic importance raises concerns about potential disruptions. Kenneth Goh, a wealth management director, shared that investors today might lean toward safer assets like gold or stable currencies, as they brace for volatility.
Recent predictions include a potential drop in equities by 1% to 2% and a spike in oil prices by up to 10% as markets react. Alicia García-Herrero, chief economist of Asia-Pacific at Natixis, noted that a cautious approach would be wise, especially when scrutinizing Iran’s response.
Some advise against jumping in without more clarity. If this turns into a drawn-out conflict, market reactions could worsen. David Roche from Quantum Strategy emphasized the uncertainty surrounding the duration of U.S. actions and Iran’s retaliation, which are likely to define market trends.
In Asia, any prolonged disruption could hit hard, given the region’s reliance on stable energy supplies. Experts agree that while investors are wary, the initial positioning may help cushion against sudden shocks when trading resumes.
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