On February 28, 2026, the world witnessed escalating tensions when US and Israeli forces targeted Iran. This sudden conflict caused maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to plummet by nearly 97%. Since this strait handles a significant portion—about one-fifth—of the world’s oil and gas, prices soared, with Brent crude nearing $120 per barrel. However, the impact on the fertilizer market could prove even more harmful.
Urea, a key nitrogen fertilizer, saw its price rise by 32% in just a week, going from $516 to $683 per metric ton. This surge means that for US farmers, one ton of urea costs as much as 126 bushels of corn, up from 75 just months earlier. Major producers like Qatar Fertilizer Company have declared force majeure, indicating the severe supply chain disruptions. Unlike oil, there isn’t a strategic reserve for nitrogen fertilizers, which puts farmers at risk during critical planting seasons.
Máximo Torero, the chief economist for the FAO, cautioned that the loss of Gulf exports could lead to immediate global food shortages, possibly pushing 45 million more people into extreme hunger if the conflict continues.
This crisis is not an isolated incident; it is part of a troubling pattern. In September 2019, drone strikes on Saudi Aramco halted 5% of the global oil supply overnight. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 sparked a dramatic spike in European gas prices. And in February 2022, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine caused wheat futures to surge by 60%, with significant increases in fertilizer prices following suit. Each disruption, slightly worse than the last, shows a troubling trend of increasing fragility in our food systems.
Fossil fuel use in food systems is significant, consuming at least 15% of global energy. For staple crops like corn and wheat, energy and fertilizer account for over half of production costs. The heavy reliance on natural gas for synthetic nitrogen fertilizer compounds this vulnerability. As Bank of America warned, the ongoing conflict in the Gulf could threaten 65-70% of global urea supplies.
In the wake of these disruptions, experts highlight a critical need for a transformative shift in food systems. Every major crisis has failed to spark substantial change. However, we are at a pivotal point. Just as the rise of digital technology transformed communication, the food sector can evolve. Innovations like regenerative agriculture, which focuses on systems that enhance soil health and biodiversity, could provide vital resilience against such crises.
For example, the UNEP Food Waste Index Report 2024 reveals that one-fifth of food produced is lost or wasted. This indicates that the world already produces enough food for over ten billion people. Hunger isn’t a yield problem but a systems issue—one that traditional practices struggle to address.
Research supports the potential of regenerative systems. A recent meta-analysis in *Nature Communications* indicated these systems maintain or even improve yields while enhancing profitability and ecological health. Unlike traditional models reliant on high inputs, regenerative practices foster resilience and sustainability.
Moreover, the urgency for change is compounded by the ongoing threat of climate change and geopolitical instability. Countries that are most vulnerable to disruptions, such as Bangladesh and Sudan, could benefit the most from diversifying their food systems through agroecological methods. By rebuilding food sovereignty and systems that prioritize local knowledge and biodiversity, these nations could become less dependent on global supply chains and more resilient in crises.
Currently, global fossil fuel subsidies reached $7 trillion in 2022, a staggering figure that highlights inefficiencies within our agricultural systems. Redirecting even a portion of these funds toward innovative, regenerative practices can yield substantial benefits. Creating a robust, decentralized food infrastructure could pave the way for future resilience.
The future of food depends on the innovators—those outside the traditional agricultural landscape—who can drive this transformation. Tech entrepreneurs, investors looking for sustainable opportunities, and displaced workers with transferable skills can collectively forge a new path. The potential for regenerative agriculture is vast, meeting not only the needs of food security and climate resilience but also enhancing public health.
As we face inevitable disruptions, our challenge is clear: will we cling to outdated systems, or will we embrace this moment for meaningful change? The decision rests with us. Changes may take time to fully materialize, but the groundwork for the future is already there. We must act now to minimize the damage and build a stronger, more adaptive food system for all.
