Germany’s Crucial Election: How Economic Struggles, Migration Issues, and Rising Far-Right Influence Are Shaping Voter Discontent

BERLIN (AP) — German voters are heading to the polls to pick a new government. This election is shaped by concerns over the slow economy, migration issues, and the ongoing situation in Ukraine. The center-right opposition is expected to win, and a far-right party could see its best results since World War II.

Germany stands as a key player in the European Union and NATO, having provided substantial military support to Ukraine. The country’s choices will significantly influence Europe’s future and its relationship with the United States.

More than 59 million Germans are eligible to vote for the 630 members of the Bundestag, Germany’s lower house of parliament. They will convene in Berlin’s iconic Reichstag building.

Germany often sees coalition governments, and this election will likely be no different. No party appears poised to secure an outright majority, meaning that negotiations between multiple parties could take weeks or even months before a new chancellor is confirmed.

This election has been brought forward by seven months because Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition fell apart in November, after struggles between the parties. Many voters feel disillusioned and not particularly enthusiastic about the options available.

Friedrich Merz, leader of the center-right Union bloc, has consistently led in the polls, with support ranging from 28% to 32%. He is seen as the frontrunner to take over from Scholz. The Social Democrats, led by Scholz, are polling between 14% and 16%, which would be a significant drop for them.

The far-right Alternative for Germany party has gained traction, polling around 20%, significantly higher than their previous performance. They have nominated Alice Weidel as their first candidate for chancellor. However, other parties have signaled they will not collaborate with AfD, creating a barrier for their influence.

The Greens, led by outgoing Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck, are also in the mix but face challenges from other parties and are not polling as high as they’d like.

Merz promises stability after Scholz’s chaotic governance. However, if he wins, it remains uncertain if he can form a government that avoids the issues that plagued the last one. He might need to partner with additional parties to establish a working majority.

Key players for Merz would be the Social Democrats, the Greens, and the pro-business Free Democrats. This latter group risks failing to meet the threshold to remain in parliament.

The main issues at stake include turning around Germany’s stagnating economy, which has faced two years of decline. Migration has become a focal point, especially following recent attacks involving immigrants. Merz has proposed stricter immigration controls and increased deportations.

His rivals are concerned about his approach, particularly regarding the far-right AfD. Scholz criticized Merz for appearing to align with them, though Merz insists he will not work with the party.

Mainstream parties plan to continue supporting Ukraine amid its conflict with Russia. The new government will need to find ways to maintain defense spending at the NATO target of 2% of GDP, especially as a significant military modernization fund is set to expire in 2027.