Holding the Burden: How Climate Change Impacts Africa’s Economy and Society Despite Minimal Contributions – Insights from Africa Science News

Investing in climate action is more than just a good idea—it’s a smart financial choice. A recent report from the Boston Consulting Group, alongside Cambridge Judge Business School and the University of Cambridge’s climaTraces Lab, highlights the severe economic risks of inaction. If we let global warming rise to 3°C by 2100, we could face a staggering 15% to 34% drop in economic output. On the flip side, spending just 1% to 2% of global GDP on climate mitigation and adaptation could help limit warming to 2°C, cutting potential damages down to about 2% to 4%.

This report puts into perspective how crucial it is to act now. Delaying action could lead to cumulative GDP losses that are projected at 11% to 27%—far exceeding global healthcare costs and eight times what’s needed to eliminate extreme poverty by 2100.

As the report notes, Africa stands to face some of the harshest economic consequences of climate change. By 2050, its GDP could contract by 16%, primarily due to factors like severe heat waves and droughts. Despite contributing only 4% to global greenhouse gas emissions, Africa’s economy will be hit hard, underscoring a glaring injustice. "G20 countries have contributed about 75% of global emissions,” says Hamid Maher, a managing director at BCG.

Worryingly, heat waves may lead to nearly 1.6 million deaths worldwide by 2050, with southern and western Africa facing the brunt of these challenges. In West Africa, Niger could see the highest rates of internal climate migration, with projections suggesting that drought could lead to the displacement of around 19.1 million people by mid-century.

Experts agree on one thing: the economic impact of climate change is extensive, affecting industries far beyond just agriculture. "Productivity loss is the main culprit," says Kamiar Mohaddes, an economist at the University of Cambridge. “It doesn’t just threaten farming; it will touch sectors like transport, manufacturing, and retail as well.”

Investing in climate solutions is not just responsible—it’s also economically beneficial. Every dollar spent on mitigation could yield returns between 5 to 14 times that investment. To effectively limit temperature rise, we need to ramp up investments significantly by 2050: nine times more for mitigation and thirteen times more for adaptation. However, time is of the essence; 60% of the required funding must come before 2050, highlighting the urgency of the situation.

Annika Zawadzki, another co-author of the report, puts it simply: “The economic case for climate action is clear, yet not widely recognized.” The potential returns on investment in climate initiatives could be as high as tenfold by the end of the century, making it a wise choice not just for the planet but for economies worldwide.

With the stakes this high, understanding the connection between climate investment and economic health can guide communities and leaders to act decisively for a sustainable future.

For more insights, check out the full report from BCG here: Too Hot to Think Straight, Too Cold to Panic.

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Adaptation,Climate Action,climate mitigation,University of Cambridge climaTRACES Lab