The conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran has intensified with the involvement of Houthi forces from Yemen. This new layer of fighting not only poses immediate threats but also risks serious disruptions to the global economy.
Pakistan is stepping in to facilitate talks among Middle Eastern nations, including Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt, to seek a regional solution. However, the absence of key players in these discussions raises doubts about meaningful progress.
Recently, Houthi forces launched missiles at what they call “sensitive Israeli military sites.” While Israel reported intercepting one missile, the strike marks their increasing boldness in the region.
Despite claims from the US that Iran’s military has been diminished, intelligence suggests that only about one-third of Iran’s missile and drone capabilities have been destroyed. This underscores the ongoing risks of escalation.
In another incident, a missile attack on a US base in Saudi Arabia injured several American soldiers, and drones caused substantial damage at Kuwait International Airport. This highlights the conflict’s ripple effects beyond Iran and Israel.
The Houthis’ control over Yemen’s population centers presents a direct threat to critical maritime routes, namely the Bab al-Mandab strait. Closing this narrow passage would severely impact global trade, compounding problems already created by restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz.
Analysts like Farea Al-Muslimi from Chatham House stress the significance of this escalation. The Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab are crucial for international shipping, and any disruption could provoke a humanitarian crisis reminiscent of the Saudi-Yemen conflict before the 2022 truce.
Since the US-Israeli strikes began on February 28, Saudi Arabia has redirected some oil exports by pipeline. However, if these routes become compromised, Saudi Arabia could choose to directly enter the conflict, further widening the war.
Iranian military actions have included assaults on infrastructure supporting US efforts in the Gulf. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s involvement in providing anti-drone technologies adds another layer to this complex scenario.
Moreover, the US has reportedly used controversial cluster munitions, raising ethical concerns. These munitions are banned by many countries and their deployment in this conflict could have serious humanitarian implications.
As the war enters its second month, Pakistan’s Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif, aims to encourage dialogue between the US and Iran. However, the effectiveness of regional talks lacking direct participants remains uncertain.
Former President Donald Trump has suggested that Saudi Arabia should normalize relations with Israel as leverage in the conflict, further complicating diplomatic efforts.
As tensions rise, Tehran has warned that any US ground invasion would lead to a complete shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, which is crucial for oil exports. This could result in increased attacks on vital infrastructure and heighten the risk of a broader regional conflict.
Experts believe such an escalation would yield disastrous consequences. The fighting could be more intense and destructive than seen in previous conflicts, emphasizing the urgent need for diplomatic intervention.
