What’s happening with the climate crisis? In recent years, some of the loudest voices in climate activism seem to have quieted down. For instance, in 2021, Bill Gates warned that parts of the world could become uninhabitable due to rising temperatures. But later, he shifted his tone, suggesting that civilization itself may not be at risk from climate change.
Many high-profile advocates like former U.N. climate ambassador Mark Carney and billionaire Tom Steyer have changed their focus or even withdrawn their support for aggressive climate policies. Carney, now Canada’s prime minister, has halted a national carbon tax, while Steyer’s recent campaign for California governor conspicuously avoids mentioning climate change.
So, why the sudden silence? The fundamental science hasn’t changed: carbon emissions keep rising, and the Earth continues to warm. What’s different is political priorities. After the COVID-19 pandemic and the economic fallout from the Ukraine war, public concern shifted. According to a recent YouGov survey, those who listed climate as the most pressing issue fell from 14% in early 2020 to just 6% now.
The affordability crisis is dominating discussions, overshadowing climate issues. As people worry more about inflation and rising living costs, they seem less willing to support costly climate measures. Despite this, some experts argue that the transition to cleaner energy is still progressing. The cost of renewable energy sources is dropping, which could lead to a decrease in emissions, even without robust policies.
The shift toward “climate realism” focuses on finding practical solutions and embracing low-carbon technologies. For instance, technological advancements in renewable energy and storage options are promising. This perspective recognizes that while climate change is a serious issue, immediate, radical policy shifts may not be feasible or necessary.
Historically, climate change was framed as an urgent, threat-driven crisis, often pushing for comprehensive, immediate actions. Ted Nordhaus, from the Breakthrough Institute, highlights that climate advocacy peaked around President Trump’s term, linking it to a broader response against populism.
Meanwhile, corporate America has shifted focus as well. Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, emphasized that investments must consider climate risks in 2020. Yet, in response to shifting public opinions, US policies around energy and emissions have also evolved. Trump’s recent actions have rolled back various environmental regulations, raising concerns about slowdowns in renewable energy projects.
One cautionary note is that as some move away from extreme alarmism, there’s a risk that denialism could take hold. A balanced approach—supporting all forms of energy without disregarding the climate—might serve society best. The past indicates that economic trends can often overshadow political policies; emissions have been falling steadily relative to economic output for decades.
Ultimately, while we face challenges regarding climate change, the conversation is evolving. The focus is shifting from simply pushing for radical measures to embracing innovation and practical solutions that have the potential to address both climate and economic concerns. The key is finding sustainable paths that garner broad support without triggering ideological extremes.
