On Sunday, Citrini Research shared an intriguing piece on Substack titled “The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis.” It’s a thought experiment set in June 2028, painting a picture of rising unemployment in the U.S., hitting 10.2%. This surge is linked to widespread layoffs caused by AI taking over many white-collar jobs starting in 2026.
Despite high GDP growth and increasing productivity, a troubling trend emerges: consumer spending drops significantly. A cycle begins where improved AI leads companies to hire fewer workers, which in turn causes reduced consumer spending. As fewer people have jobs, they spend less, which pressures companies to invest even more in AI.
The effects ripple through various sectors. AI doesn’t stop at software; it begins to affect delivery apps and payment systems. For example, competition from AI-driven alternatives to services like DoorDash and traditional banks could diminish transaction fees, disrupting established business models.
The essay makes clear that this scenario is a speculative forecast rather than a certain future. It aims to prompt readers to think about the risks posed by AI as it transforms the economy.
This thought piece had immediate repercussions in the market. Stocks in software companies, such as ServiceNow, fell along with shares of major players like DoorDash and American Express. February saw what some are calling a “SaaSpocalypse,” a sharp decline in software stock values largely fueled by worries of AI’s growing influence.
Market sentiment seems to be driven by the belief that AI technology could soon eliminate the need for many specialized services. James St. Aubin, an investment expert, suggests that the competition from AI is reshaping how we evaluate established companies, leaving them vulnerable.
Interestingly, not everyone agrees on the imminent rise of AI. Last year, Daniel Kokotajlo, a former OpenAI employee, made bold predictions about superintelligence arriving quickly. Recently, he had to revise these claims, saying progress is moving slower than he expected. The development of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)—AI that surpasses human capabilities—is hotly debated among experts.
In a November survey, many industry leaders contended that the timelines regarding AGI are too optimistic. Some argue that while AI may disrupt industries, it could also boost the demand for advanced software solutions, countering fears of a complete takeover.
Investors are caught in an odd situation. They’re worried about both not enough and too much AI at the same time. Lochlan Halloway, a market strategist, mentions this peculiar anxiety in conversations about the future.
Overall, while the landscape may look uncertain, experts continue to discuss the balance AI creates in the economy. The evolving relationship between AI and the workforce is crucial to understanding what the future might hold. As AI technology progresses, recognizing its potential benefits alongside its risks will be vital for navigating this new reality.
For more insights on AI’s impact on various industries, you can check this link.
