Sean Payton is a seasoned NFL coach, now leading the Denver Broncos. At 60 years old and entering his 18th year as a head coach, he’s on a mission: to find a franchise quarterback. His scouting isn’t just about talent; it’s about finding someone who can truly elevate the team.
Payton believes that picking a quarterback in the first round is crucial. He insists it should be someone who can “build the building,” referring to the legendary John Elway. A year ago, a scout suggested a quarterback who would need everyone in the organization’s support to thrive. Payton dismissed this, focusing instead on traits that indicate a player can handle the pressure of being the leader.
In 2017, while with the New Orleans Saints, Payton thought he’d found his successor to Drew Brees in Patrick Mahomes, whose unique style and raw talent captivated him. He analyzed Mahomes’s performance, not just by looking at stats but by examining moments of failure. Payton wanted to identify how a player processes information and reacts under pressure.
Payton’s formula for evaluating quarterbacks is fascinating. He considers the rate of negative plays—sacks, fumbles, and interceptions—along with completion percentages, to develop an average score. In Mahomes’ case, Payton found that negative plays occurred only 8.1% of the time. This score hinted at Mahomes’s potential for quick decision-making, a vital skill for any NFL quarterback.
Fast forward to 2024, Payton is scouting new talent. This year, he has his eye on several promising quarterbacks including Caleb Williams and Drake Maye, both expected to be picked before the Broncos’ 12th spot. However, the one who stands out to him is Bo Nix from Oregon. Nix’s stats are impressive—he completed 74.8% of his passes in college while maintaining a low rate of sacks and fumbles, better than Mahomes’ college numbers.
What sets Nix apart is not just his stats but also his preparation. During a meeting with Payton, Nix memorized the entire offensive playbook Payton provided. This level of dedication shows his readiness to step up in the NFL. “I want this kid,” Payton says confidently, believing in Nix’s potential to thrive, despite what critics may say about the risk of taking him at 12.
In January 2025, Nix started all 17 games for the Broncos. He threw 29 touchdowns, showcasing significant improvement. This leap is crucial; many second-year quarterbacks often struggle as defenses adapt to their playing style. While others like Caleb Williams face instability in coaching changes, Nix has the advantage of continuity with Payton.
During training, Nix develops his skills in film sessions filled with complex terminology that can be overwhelming. Understanding the nuances of each play and communicating effectively with coaches are essential aspects of becoming a top-tier quarterback. Payton knows this learning curve is critical for Nix to reach greatness.
In essence, coaching a quarterback isn’t just about refining their physical skills; it’s also about shaping their mental acuity and decision-making on the field. Payton’s approach is methodical, reflecting his belief that great quarterbacks are crafted, not just born.
For more insights on NFL coaching strategies and player evaluations, see the NFL’s coaching resources.
