California is in the midst of a complex struggle. The state is pushing for more homes to switch to electric power while electricity bills are climbing steeply. Between 2020 and now, electric bills have soared by 35 to 45%. This spike hits low-income families especially hard. Many families are already stretched thin, also facing the highest gasoline prices in the country—30 to 50% more than the national average.
At the center of this issue is California’s Air Resources Board (CARB). Their goal is to improve public health and reduce air pollution by promoting electric vehicles. They aim for carbon neutrality by 2045 and hope to lower the carbon intensity of transportation fuels by 90% during this time. They project this initiative could remove over 500 million metric tons of CO2 emissions, which sounds great—but only when you consider the larger picture. For comparison, California’s expected reductions over 20 years amount to just a few weeks of China’s total emissions. In fact, the wildfires in California during the past few years have erased much of the progress made on carbon dioxide reduction.
Despite CARB’s claims of improved air quality benefiting communities, they provide little substantial data to support these assertions. They lack clear information on the costs of their policies and how they impact low-income neighborhoods. One has to wonder about their commitment to considering economic effects when they focus on strict fuel standards that drive up costs.
The board consists of members primarily selected for their environmental expertise, not necessarily for their economic knowledge. This could explain the disconnect in understanding the broader effects of these regulations. When policies increase fuel prices without accounting for the burdens they place on the poorest residents, it casts doubt on their effectiveness and intentions. The lack of definitive data raises a critical question: Do the anticipated environmental benefits of CARB’s policies outweigh the rising costs for California’s most vulnerable communities? The answer seems to be a clear “no.”
David R. Henderson and Francois Melese are emeritus professors of economics at the Naval Postgraduate School.
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