How Climate Change Could Dramatically Impact GDP: An Economist’s Alarmingly Insightful Forecast

Last year was the hottest since record-keeping began in 1850. In fact, the average global temperature in 2024 was nearly 1.5 degrees Celsius higher than pre-industrial levels, a threshold outlined in the Paris climate agreement.

As climate-related disasters increase, some experts worry about the long-term effects on the global economy. Research from the University of Exeter indicates that if we don’t reduce emissions, global GDP could be halved by 2070.

Dr. Tim Lenton, a professor at the University of Exeter, co-authored the 2025 Planetary Solvency Report and shared insights about these findings in an interview with public radio’s Living on Earth.

Interview Highlights:

**Jenni Doering:** Your report suggests a possible 50% drop in global GDP between 2070 and 2090. Why such a high risk, and what could be at stake?

**Tim Lenton:** If we continue on our current path, warming could reach 3-4 degrees Celsius. This might lead to significant changes in how livable parts of our planet are. Such shifts could disrupt economies and societies, causing breakdowns we can’t easily recover from. Some may view a 50% decrease as manageable, but it suggests a severe loss of economic stability and productivity.

**Doering:** Why focus specifically on GDP?

**Lenton:** Although GDP is not a perfect measure of well-being, it’s how many discuss economic health. To convey our concerns effectively, we highlighted GDP impacts, even recognizing its limitations. Current trends show real estate withdrawals from insurance markets, pointing to economic vulnerability as properties become riskier investments.

**Doering:** Reflecting on past economic downturns, are we facing worse conditions ahead?

**Lenton:** It’s possible. We’re examining the significant risks that could threaten the economy and our way of life.

**Doering:** Can you explain the climate risks involved?

**Lenton:** We’ve seen an increase in extreme weather events, like the wildfires in L.A. and last year’s floods in Valencia. More worryingly, we risk crossing critical tipping points in the climate. This could lead to rapid, irreversible changes. For example, melted ice sheets could cause faster sea-level rise, and a damaged Amazon could turn into a less productive landscape. These shifts could severely impact agriculture, jeopardizing food and water security worldwide.

**Doering:** So, how do your findings differ from other predictions of climate impact?

**Lenton:** Many early models underestimated the breadth of climate change’s impacts, focusing only on outdoor activities like agriculture. However, climate change affects all aspects of life and the economy. It’s vital to consider these broader implications.

**Doering:** If these risks are real, why the sense of denial among some?

**Lenton:** While some ignore the issue, many people recognize climate change as a reality driven by human action. Surveys show a majority supports stronger government action. The challenge lies in the complex nature of climate issues, which often unfold over long periods and involve invisible threats. Additionally, powerful interests benefit from maintaining the status quo.

**Doering:** Given the current political climate, are hopes for change realistic?

**Lenton:** Yes, but shifts are starting to happen. Renewable energy is becoming the cheapest power source globally, which could drive a transformation away from fossil fuels. As we adopt more solar panels and wind turbines, their efficiencies and costs keep improving. We’re approaching a point where investing in renewables becomes inevitable, though challenges remain.

**Doering:** How can individuals prepare for potential changes ahead?

**Lenton:** It’s essential to recognize escalating climate risks, but we can foster resilience together. Supporting clean energy initiatives not only benefits the environment but also improves air quality. Building trust within communities is vital for adapting to changes and responding to future challenges.

**Doering:** What future do you envision for your kids in the coming decades?

**Lenton:** I want my children, now 14 and 15, to grow up in a world with clean energy and restored nature. They will face climate challenges, but through our choices today, we can create a more sustainable future for them.