Every fall, millions of monarch butterflies take an incredible journey from Canada and the U.S. to central Mexico for the winter. This migration is one of nature’s wonders. However, emerging research suggests climate change could threaten this iconic event.
As temperatures shift, the suitable habitats for monarchs in Mexico may move farther south. A study published in PLOS Climate points out that this change could make the butterfly’s journey longer and require more energy. Carolina Ureta, a biologist from the National Autonomous University of Mexico, explains that while the species itself isn’t necessarily in danger, the migration could be.
Monarch populations have been declining for years. Factors contributing to this include habitat loss, extreme weather, pesticides, and parasites. Since the 1990s, populations in central Mexico have plummeted by over 80%, with numbers once close to 700 million now much lower.
Interestingly, citizen scientists have noted that some monarchs seem to be staying in Mexico instead of continuing north. Víctor Sánchez Cordero, a conservation biologist, adds that not all monarchs across the globe migrate. For instance, butterflies in places like Chile and New Zealand remain in their habitats year-round.
To understand how climate change might impact North American monarchs, Ureta and her team used computer models to forecast potential habitats. Their predictions for 2070 show a worrying decline in suitable areas for milkweed—the only plant on which monarchs lay their eggs and caterpillars feed. They estimated that ideal habitat could shrink from 19,500 square kilometers to around 8,000 square kilometers.
If suitable habitats move farther south, the butterflies may face even greater hardships. To assess the health of the migrating populations, researchers might track wing sizes. Typically, non-migrating butterflies have smaller wingspans compared to their migrating counterparts.
The fate of these butterflies is tied not only to climate but also to our ongoing conservation efforts and deeper understanding of their behaviors. Engaging the public in citizen science and habitat restoration can play a crucial role in aiding their survival.
For a deeper insight into the challenges facing monarchs and other key species, consider checking resources like the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s reports on conservation efforts. Understanding these changes allows us to appreciate and protect the majestic migration of the monarch butterfly.
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