Climate change is changing how and where people live, impacting everything from rural farms to coastal cities. Professor François Gemenne, a leading expert on climate migration, has spent over 20 years studying how environmental issues influence people’s relocation choices.
When he started his research, climate migration was a niche topic. “People often confused it with animal migration. I had to clarify that I focused on people,” he shared. Now, as a professor at the University of Liège in Belgium, Gemenne co-directs the Hugo Observatory, which specializes in understanding how environmental changes affect population movements.
For the past four years, Gemenne has led a significant EU-funded research project called HABITABLE. This initiative brought together climate migration researchers from Europe, Africa, and Thailand. They used surveys, interviews, and group discussions to gain insights into how people perceive climate risks.
Interestingly, the project found a growing awareness of climate migration among Europeans. Many now consider themselves at risk. In a recent Obs’COP survey, over 20% of respondents in France expressed that they might need to leave their homes within the next decade due to climate change.
Traditionally, climate migration models focus on physical changes like rising temperatures or sea levels. However, the HABITABLE research team introduced a concept known as “social tipping points.” These are moments when decisions by a few households encourage others in the community to migrate as well. For example, if several families leave due to repeated floods, it could influence neighbors to follow. This highlights the complexity behind migration decisions.
“People’s responses differ based on their economic and social circumstances,” Gemenne noted. Factors such as community support and local policies can significantly influence whether individuals choose to stay or leave.
The project also explored specific regions. In Ghana, under Professor Mumuni Abu, researchers looked at how environmental issues push people to migrate. They discovered that migration decisions vary by gender, age, and social class. This research has helped local authorities create more inclusive policies, especially for vulnerable groups.
In Southeast Asia, researchers examined communities along the Mekong River. Sara Vigil from the Stockholm Environment Institute found that issues like debt and declining fish stocks often drive migration more than climate alone. Local initiatives, like community water monitoring, have emerged as responses to these challenges.
The HABITABLE project aims to shift the narrative around climate migration. Instead of solely labeling people as vulnerable, it seeks to understand the underlying reasons behind their struggles. “Understanding why some places are at greater risk is crucial,” Vigil stated.
For Gemenne, the research unearths important lessons for future migration dynamics. People’s perceptions matter. Social tipping points provide deeper insights into community movements. Lastly, involving local voices in research leads to better solutions.
The findings from the HABITABLE team are now showcased in a global exhibition on Migrations and Climate at the National Museum for the History of Immigration in Paris, running until April 2026. Gemenne hopes this research sparks meaningful discussions and influences policy-making for years to come.
