Some plants that define our landscapes may not survive by the end of the century due to climate change. Scientists warn that shifting climates are making it harder for these plants to thrive.
Researchers studied over 67,000 vascular plant species, which includes most known plants worldwide. They found that 7% to 16% could lose more than 90% of their habitat, putting them at a high risk of extinction. Notable at-risk species include Catalina ironwood, a rare tree from California, some Eucalyptus species, and the ancient bluish spike-moss, which dates back over 400 million years.
The team analyzed millions of plant location records along with climate models predicting greenhouse gas emissions for 2081-2100.
A plant’s habitat isn’t just a geographical spot; it’s a mix of temperature, rainfall, soil, and even landscape features like shade. Researchers Junna Wang from Yale and Xiaoli Dong from UC Davis explained that plants are like travelers trying to follow a “climate envelope” as temperatures rise. Some might move north or uphill, but this is only part of the issue.
The study indicated climate change is shrinking the number of suitable habitats where conditions for survival are ideal. Plants reproduce over generations, relying on seeds and spores to spread. When researchers compared limited dispersal with a scenario where plants could freely move to new habitats, they found similar extinction rates. This suggests simply helping plants move may not be enough if suitable habitats are dwindling overall.
The impact varies by region. Cold-adapted plants in the Arctic face habitat loss as frigid climates retreat. In drier areas, like parts of the U.S. and Mediterranean regions, stronger droughts and more wildfires pose serious risks. Meanwhile, areas with increased rainfall, particularly in the tropics, could see new plant species moving in.
The researchers emphasize that while some local areas may see increased plant diversity, many species may disappear from their historical ranges. This creates “novel communities” where plants that never existed together begin to interact. The outcomes of those interactions remain uncertain.
Plants play a crucial role in our ecosystems. They store carbon, support wildlife, and provide food, materials, and medicines. Changes in plant diversity can affect not just nature but also human societies. If plant cover decreases due to climate change, ecosystems may absorb less carbon dioxide, worsening climate warming in a harmful feedback loop.
Ultimately, conserving plant diversity is essential—not just for nature, but for the ecological systems that support us all.
For more insights, you can read the full study published in Science.
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Environment,climate change
