India’s solar energy potential might decline because of climate change. A recent study in Energy and Climate Change suggests that rising greenhouse gas emissions could lower solar radiation in central, southern, and eastern India by up to 10%. This solar radiation is crucial for optimizing solar power production.
The research indicates that solar energy is very weather dependent. Even small changes in sunlight can significantly impact how much energy solar panels generate over their lifespan, which is about 20 to 25 years.
Ashwin Jadhav, a researcher at Savitribai Phule Pune University, stressed the importance of understanding regional differences in solar radiation. He noted that while northwestern India has more stable solar potential, areas in the east and south might need alternative solutions, such as combining solar with wind energy or deploying battery storage.
The researchers used nine global climate models to create a detailed dataset of solar radiation for India. By correcting biases in the models, they achieved more accurate projections. Their findings showed a strong historical correlation, lending credibility to future predictions.
They analyzed three emission scenarios: low, intermediate, and high. Under the low scenario, solar radiation may decline by only 0.5% to 1% per decade. However, under high emissions, declines could be much more significant.
One major concern is increased atmospheric turbidity and more cloud cover during the post-monsoon season. These factors could reduce solar power generation in India’s key renewable energy regions. Jadhav emphasized that developers should consider these long-term changes when planning solar farms.
Despite expanding solar capacity, India faces challenges in actual energy generation. As of August 2025, India’s solar capacity reached 123,130 megawatts, but electricity generation was only about 12,100 megawatts, according to the Union Ministry of New & Renewable Energy. Weather-related issues like cloud cover play a key role in this gap.
Historical patterns, like periods of “global dimming,” show how changing atmospheric conditions can impact solar potential. Jadhav and his colleague Rohini Lakshman Bhawar call for climate-resilient energy strategies. They suggest that accurate solar projections can help with site selection for solar parks, grid integration, and technology planning.
With India aiming for 500 gigawatts of non-fossil fuel power by 2030, solar energy needs to play a significant role. Thus, reliable forecasting of solar availability will be critical in reaching these goals.
Research from other regions, like the U.S. and Europe, shows similar trends in solar radiation changes. This study fills a critical gap by providing high-resolution projections for India, which can aid in strategic planning.
Jadhav aims to connect climate projections with real-world performance of solar panels. He plans to explore how seasonal weather and extreme events will impact energy generation. Understanding these factors is vital for developing reliable solar infrastructure as the climate changes.
In summary, India must account for the impact of climate change on solar energy as it develops its renewable energy sector. Targeting specific areas for solar deployment and using hybrid systems can help mitigate potential declines in solar availability. With careful planning, India can continue its journey towards sustainable energy, even in the face of climate challenges.
