A recent assessment of the Colorado River Basin reveals a troubling picture. The Southwest is facing a drying trend caused by rising temperatures and decreasing precipitation due to human-induced climate change. This situation is critical as the Colorado River provides water to over 40 million people and supports a $1.4 trillion economy.
Experts Jonathan Overpeck from the University of Michigan and Brad Udall from Colorado State University published their findings in a report titled Colorado River Insights, 2025: Dancing With Deadpool. Their analysis updates previous research and highlights significant changes in hydrology.
Back in 2017, their study revealed an 18-year drought that diminished natural flows by about 17%. Now, the average natural flow at Lees Ferry has dropped from 15 million acre-feet in the 1990s to only 12.3 million acre-feet today. This decline indicates worsening conditions.
A pivotal finding is that the decrease in precipitation is mostly linked to human-induced warming, not just natural weather patterns. Recent studies suggest that current temperature and precipitation levels are unprecedented compared to past megadroughts. Experts predict that future decades may face even longer dry spells in the upper reaches of the river.
Storage levels provide a stark picture of vulnerability. In 1999, the major reservoirs held 59.5 million acre-feet of water. By November 2025, Lake Powell and Lake Mead combined held just 14.9 million acre-feet, with only about 42% being accessible due to various constraints. During 2020-2025, natural flows matched the lowest levels recorded between 2000 and 2005.
With both available water and inflows diminishing, the risk of shortages is increasing. If natural flows in 2026 repeat the low levels of 2025, the basin could see a supply gap of 3.6 million acre-feet. This scenario could push accessible water levels dangerously low, potentially causing a crisis by 2027.
The bottom line is clear: human-caused climate change is crucial to understanding the future of the Colorado River. As temperatures continue to rise, and emissions increase, the reliability of this vital water resource becomes more uncertain. This urgent situation calls for integrated climate solutions in all water planning efforts, as the fate of the river is intricately tied to our actions now.
For further insights, you can explore recent publications on climate impacts from organizations such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS).
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