Landslides have recently claimed at least a dozen lives in Southeast Alaska. This troubling trend sparked a crucial question: “Are landslides becoming more common?” Aaron Jacobs, a hydrologist with the National Weather Service in Juneau, along with his team, explored this issue.
Historically, between 1883 and 2025, investigators recorded 281 significant landslides. Initially, it seemed uncertain whether the frequency was rising. However, Jacobs has now confirmed that landslides are indeed on the rise. Reports show that prior to the 1980s, fewer than 10 damaging landslides were noted each decade. Between the 1980s and 2010s, the occurrence shot up by 295%. In the recent decade, 84 landslides were reported, and in just the first half of the 2020s, 76 landslides have already made headlines.
Jacobs highlighted that increased rainfall seems to be a common trigger. In fact, he pointed out that the last two decades have seen more precipitation-driven events. Recent research suggests that warmer air can hold more moisture, leading to heavier downpours that trigger these landslides.
The alarming frequency of landslides parallels changes in climate. A study noted an increase in average temperatures in Alaska, leading to a 3% to 27% spike in precipitation over the past 50 years. Jacob explains, “It’s all connected.”
In recent years, significant landslides have struck places like Sitka in 2015, Haines in 2020, and Wrangell in 2023, all due to extreme weather conditions. Researchers have found that rain falling on snow often saturates the ground, making landslides more likely. A study published recently also outlines how these rain-on-snow occurrences trigger many landslides.
Community impacts vary widely. For instance, Prince of Wales Island has seen nearly 800 landslides, closely linked to the extensive logging road network there. Quinn Aboudara, a natural resources manager for the Shaan Seet tribal corporation, noted that during his childhood, landslides were less common, and winters held more snow. Now, rainy seasons are treated as landslide seasons.
In Sitka, Luka Silva is spearheading initiatives to improve safety amid the rising risks. His team is working on an early warning system and mapping landslide hazards. However, resistance remains; some local governments are hesitant to adopt new hazard maps, fearing property values could drop and insurance costs rise.
Silva emphasizes the urgency of addressing these issues head-on. With climate change continuing to alter landscapes, he asks, “What are we going to do to make people safer?” As communities grapple with these questions, the risk of landslides is likely to remain a pressing concern in the years ahead.
For more detailed information on the trends in Alaska, you can check out the recent studies published in reputable journals, such as the journal Landslides.
