How Climate Change is Transforming India’s Agriculture: Key Insights and Policy Implications

India’s agriculture is facing tough times due to extreme weather. Even though recent seasons showed good crop output thanks to better water levels, climate change remains a serious issue. A report from the Reserve Bank of India points out how inconsistent rainfall can mess with crop production.

This study highlights that too much or too little rain during critical times can hurt crop yields and quality. For example, if June and July are dry, it can lower cereal and pulse outputs. Conversely, heavy rains in August and September can damage oilseeds at harvest time.

Maize is particularly susceptible to rainfall changes, as it relies heavily on rainfed conditions. While paddy is somewhat resilient due to extensive irrigation, it can still suffer from excessive rain, decreasing yields by roughly 0.011%. Interestingly, some pulses, like arhar and urad, actually thrive with more rainfall, enjoying a boost in output with increased precipitation.

Climate vulnerability varies across India. Regions like Rajasthan face drought, while Assam and Bihar are prone to flooding. This uneven risk makes it essential to research how climate changes affect different agricultural areas.

The 2024 monsoon was the heaviest in years, alleviating drought but also causing havoc with excessive rainfall damaging crops. This led to rising food prices, which particularly hurts small farmers and low-income families, showcasing the economic fallout of weather extremes. In fact, according to research from the Potsdam Institute, rising global temperatures are likely to increase inflation, especially in developing nations like India.

Statistics reveal the urgency: food inflation in India increased from an average of 2.9% between 2016 and 2020 to over 6.3% in the current decade. This rise reflects how climate events are disrupting food supply chains, aggravating the situation.

Policy changes are crucial to tackle these challenges. The RBI suggests implementing region-specific water management practices and promoting crop diversification to cope with unpredictable weather. Investing in climate-resilient varieties and efficient irrigation systems can help farmers adapt better. Additionally, using advanced weather forecasting and expanding crop insurance can offer farmers some security against losses during climate events.

Ultimately, while climate change continues to threaten India’s food security, coordinated efforts from farmers, policymakers, and researchers could help build a more resilient agricultural future.

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