Farm animals depend heavily on suitable grazing lands, and a new study indicates that climate change could reduce this land by up to half by 2100. This is particularly concerning for sub-Saharan Africa, where many people rely on livestock for their livelihoods. Experts worry that losing grazing land will worsen hunger and health for low-income communities.
Environmental economist Andrew Hultgren from the University of Illinois emphasizes the stark contrast in impact between wealthy and poorer areas. He points out that many people in low-income regions already struggle to get enough calories. If food prices rise or access decreases, it could have severe health implications.
Meat consumption in sub-Saharan Africa is much lower than in wealthy nations. For instance, Americans eat about three times more meat than the global average. Worldwide, food production contributes to a third of greenhouse gas emissions, with livestock farming being a significant factor. About 80% of agricultural land is used for grazing or growing feed for these animals. With a growing global population, competition for land continues to increase, leading to what researchers call the “global land squeeze.”
The study also compared past climate conditions where livestock have thrived. Researchers looked at factors like temperature and humidity and made predictions based on two future climate scenarios—one optimistic, where emissions drop to zero, and another grim, where emissions continue to rise. They found that North America might actually gain grazing land, while Europe and Africa are expected to face severe losses.
Professor Prajal Pradhan, a co-author of the study, found the extent of the impact alarming, especially for sub-Saharan Africa. Reducing grazing land not only affects food availability but also people’s ability to make a livelihood.
In wealthier countries, a decrease in grazing land might lead to higher meat prices, similar to inflation. Fortunately, people in these regions can shift towards more plant-based diets, a change that could also benefit their health.
Experts agree that adaptability is essential. Hultgren believes that while the study raises important questions, not all livestock may need to graze in traditional conditions. They might adapt to harsher environments or breed more resilient animals. Rangeland ecologist Lucas Phipps echoes this sentiment, noting that farmers often find ways to thrive on less-than-ideal vegetation.
However, Phipps also points out that local conditions matter significantly. For example, in some regions, the type of precipitation can drastically influence grazing quality. He believes more localized research is needed to create effective strategies for farmers facing these changes.
This study highlights an urgent issue. As climate change affects agriculture, understanding these impacts on food security and health will become increasingly important. More in-depth research will help identify how to adapt and mitigate these effects effectively.
For further details on this topic, you can check the original studies on climate impacts on livestock [here](https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2534015123) and the global land squeeze [here](https://www.wri.org/research/global-land-squeeze-managing-growing-competition-land).
