In mid-October, passengers on a full Boeing 737 flying over Utah experienced a frightening moment when something hit the aircraft’s windshield at 36,000 feet. Investigators believe it might have been debris from a weather balloon. However, speculation arose: Could it be space junk?
This question has moved from the realm of fantasy to a real concern. According to the European Space Agency (ESA), around three pieces of outdated satellites or rocket debris fall back to Earth every day. By the mid-2030s, that number could jump to dozens each day, due to an increase in space launches and the rapid growth of satellite businesses.
Right now, there are about 12,900 active satellites orbiting our planet. Experts project this could soar to 100,000 in the next decade. With more objects in space, the risk of collisions with planes or even hitting people on the ground is becoming more significant. Aviation regulators and space agencies are taking notice and sounding the alarm.
The Growing Threat of Space Debris
While incidents involving space debris have not yet resulted in injuries, they are becoming more frequent. For instance, last year, a fragment from the International Space Station fell on a Florida home, narrowly missing a sleeping teenager. Similarly, a piece of a Falcon 9 rocket crashed near a Polish warehouse, and a Starlink satellite fragment landed on a Canadian farm. Experts suggest countless other pieces fall unnoticed in remote areas.
Usually, satellites are designed to burn up upon reentry. However, many components survive the descent, posing risks. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) recently noted that the surge in satellite launches presents new challenges for aviation safety.
A 2023 analysis by the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) projected that by 2035, the risk of a commercial aircraft being struck by space debris could potentially reach 7 in 10,000. Moreover, researchers at the University of British Columbia cautioned that if satellite launches continue unchecked, the chance of injuries from falling debris might hit 10% yearly by the same year.
Indian Startups Innovate Solutions
In the face of this growing challenge, Indian startups have emerged as innovators in managing space debris. At a recent space industry event in New Delhi, two companies showcased their plans to tackle this issue.
Digyantra, based in Bengaluru, is working on Space Situational Awareness (SSA) to track and monitor debris in orbit. They recently launched a satellite dedicated to SSA and are expanding their capabilities. Zayed, an engineer at Digyantra, emphasized their mission to provide alerts to prevent collisions and threats to aircraft and people on the ground.
OrbitAID, located in Chennai, aims to prevent debris from forming by focusing on satellite servicing and refueling, acting as a “petrol station” in space. Their CEO, Sakthikumar R, highlighted the importance of sustainability. He noted that regulators need to mandate that new satellites be designed for refueling and life extension to reduce debris generation.
Both companies are positioning India as a leader in the global response to the space debris crisis.
A New Era of Aviation Safety
The rising threat of space debris impacts more than just aviation safety; it can disrupt flights. Recent studies show that regions in northern Europe and the northeastern U.S. face a 26% annual chance of airspace disruptions due to debris reentries. This could lead to more frequent flight delays, similar to weather-related interruptions.
Most reentries are currently uncontrolled, creating additional danger. ESA estimates that roughly half of reentering rocket parts aren’t directed into safe zones. To tackle these issues, Indian companies like Digyantra and OrbitAID are crucial.
Conclusion: Preparing for the Future
The challenge posed by space debris is now a shared global concern. As more satellites are launched, the chance of collisions and other dangers grows. However, with innovations from Indian startups, there’s hope for better monitoring and management of space traffic.
As technology develops, we may one day navigate space with the same care we employ in aviation. With proactive measures in place, the hope is that we can minimize risks and make space safer for everyone.
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