How Moscow Could Become Central to the Iran Nuclear Deal Amid Advancing US Negotiations

Iran’s nuclear program is back in the spotlight, and it looks like Russia could play a major role in future deals. There’s chatter about Iran possibly storing its highly enriched uranium in Russia. Some even see Moscow as a potential referee if either side breaches an agreement.

Back in 2018, Donald Trump walked away from the nuclear deal made in 2015. He’s been vocal about his stance on Iran, threatening military action unless a new deal is made quickly to prevent Iran from creating nuclear weapons.

Recently, US and Iranian representatives met in Rome, guided by Oman, and officials say they made some real progress. They plan to hold more discussions in Geneva soon, leading to another diplomatic meeting in Oman next weekend.

Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy who was involved in the Rome talks, aims to finalize an agreement within 60 days. However, Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, seems skeptical. He believes deep-seated distrust and the complexities of the negotiations make a quick resolution unlikely.

One big hurdle is what to do with Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium. Iran wants to keep it in the country while the US demands it be either destroyed or transferred to another nation, likely Russia. On top of that, Iran seeks guarantees that the US will hold up its end of a deal, especially concerning economic sanctions.

There’s a lot of uncertainty around clear communication from both sides. Witkoff previously suggested the US wanted to dismantle Iran’s nuclear program completely, which sent shockwaves through both nations. During the negotiations, however, he retracted that notion, indicating it was more about domestic politics.

Experts have weighed in on the situation. Mohamed Amersi from the Wilson Center emphasized the importance of clarity in what the US is demanding. Without clear assurances, talks might have completely fallen apart.

For Iran, the strongest guarantee would be a treaty endorsed by Congress, but there’s skepticism about whether Trump could get such a deal approved, given the political landscape. Another suggestion is that the US might compensate Iran for losses if an agreement falls apart.

Moreover, if the US breaches a deal, a proposal exists for Russia to return the stockpile of uranium to Iran. This scenario could give Russia a crucial role in US-Iran relations, sidelining European nations and the UN.

Interestingly, the location of these talks in Rome wasn’t just random. Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni has good ties with Trump, which could help if negotiations take a wrong turn.

Adding to the complexity, Iran was bolstered just before the talks by a visit from the Saudi defense minister, signaling solidarity against a potential US-Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear sites.

The Omani foreign ministry has made the goal of the talks clear: to establish a fair deal that ensures Iran remains nuclear-free and sanctions are lifted while still allowing it to pursue peaceful nuclear energy.

In today’s fluctuating political climate, the stakes are high. Each side’s rationality might just lead to a breakthrough, or a standoff. Only time will reveal whether Iran and the US can find common ground.



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