How NOAA Budget Cuts Could Compromise the Accuracy of Your Weather Forecasts: 4 Key Impacts to Watch

Big changes are happening at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and experts are worried. Many employees have been let go, and this may lead to less accurate weather forecasts for the U.S.

The American Meteorological Society warns that these cuts could increase the risk of people facing dangerous weather without enough warning. Senator Maria Cantwell highlighted that over 880 NOAA workers lost their jobs, including key researchers who focus on improving hurricane forecasts. The National Weather Service, which is part of NOAA, also saw layoffs, reducing its capacity just when weather patterns are becoming more unpredictable.

NOAA said it would still provide essential weather information, but former employees and outside experts are skeptical. They argue that the cuts could undermine the quality of alerts and forecasts that many use daily.

Here are some of the ways these staffing changes could harm weather forecasting:

Delayed Tornado Warnings

The National Weather Service manages many weather forecasting offices, especially in hurricane-prone areas. With offices short on staff, there’s a danger of delayed tornado warnings. One expert, William Gallus from Iowa State University, noted that several central U.S. offices have lost their lead meteorologists. This gap can slow response times, meaning communities might not receive timely alerts.

For example, last year in Iowa, a tornado warning was issued only five minutes before the storm hit, when forecasters aim for at least 15 minutes. Those lost minutes can be critical for safety during emergencies.

Challenges with Hurricane Forecasts

Some of the staff members who were let go were working to understand hurricanes better, particularly how quickly they can intensify. These rapid changes can catch communities off guard. Experts like Brian Tang from the University at Albany point out that advancements in hurricane tracking are now at risk because fewer people are working on them.

Less Reliable Weather Data

Accurate forecasts depend on real-time data from various sources, including ocean buoys and satellites. With staffing cuts, vital data collection could suffer. Some local weather centers have already paused launching weather balloons due to personnel shortages, which could hinder local forecasting efforts.

Slow Improvements to Forecasts

Many staff members at the Environmental Modeling Center, responsible for refining weather models, have been let go. This will slow down research and improvements in forecasting technology. As emphasized by Andy Hazelton, when researchers leave, the potential for better forecasts declines sharply.

In summary, these staffing changes at NOAA pose serious risks to the reliability of weather forecasts and warnings. As we face more unpredictable weather, having a strong meteorological team is crucial for public safety. Without it, communities might not be as prepared for extreme weather events.