How Statistical Downscaling Impacts Projected Climate Damages: Key Differences Explained – Communications Earth & Environment

Projections about future weather and its impact on economic output combine several key elements. We use previous research to understand how weather affects economic outcomes and incorporate climate projections along with predicted economic growth and population changes.

First, we looked at past relationships between weather and economic growth by re-estimating some regression models. This helps us quantify how changes in weather, like temperature and precipitation, relate to changes in regional economic output.

Next, for climate projections, we gathered data from different sources, including NASA and other climate modeling initiatives. These sources provide downscaled temperature projections at a detailed grid level. Each source uses varying methods for accuracy in their predictions. Understanding these methods is essential because the accuracy of our projections heavily relies on the quality and credibility of the data.

We also collected economic data. For this, we obtained gridded GDP projections, which allow us to estimate economic growth at a fine spatial resolution. Population projections are also important since they help calculate per-capita GDP, which we need for understanding economic impacts.

Before using the projections, we harmonized the temperature data to ensure consistency across sources. This involved calculating annual temperature averages and aligning the data to a common grid.

With our processed data, we combined historical weather patterns with our projections to assess the future economic impact of climate change. This analysis focused on how temperature changes, both current and past, affect economic output in specific regions.

To estimate the overall economic effects, we assessed how climate change may lead to losses in regional output over time. The approach includes considering the historical effects of temperature on economic productivity and projecting these into the future.

Additionally, we calculated the Net Present Value (NPV) of potential economic losses due to climate change. This is essential for understanding the long-term economic impact and making informed decisions about climate policy.

To examine uncertainties in our projections, we varied different factors such as the climate models used, the scenarios considered, and the downscaling methods. This approach allows us to see how each source of uncertainty impacts our output loss estimates.

In summary, our projections blend historical weather data with anticipated future conditions to gauge the economic toll of climate change effectively. By considering various uncertainties, we can gain insights that are critical for planning and strategizing in a changing climate.



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Climate-change impacts,Environmental economics,Environment,general,Earth Sciences