TEL AVIV, Israel (AP) — Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government faced a significant setback when the ultra-Orthodox party United Torah Judaism (UTJ) announced it was leaving the coalition. While this development doesn’t spell immediate doom for Netanyahu, it could lead to serious complications down the line, especially in negotiating an end to the ongoing conflict in Gaza.
The departure stems from disagreements about a proposed law aimed at limiting military exemptions for ultra-Orthodox students. Military service is mandatory for most Jewish Israelis, and the issue of exemptions has been a contentious topic for years. This divide has deepened since the outbreak of conflict in Gaza, as the need for military personnel has surged alongside the rising casualties.
Shuki Friedman, an expert from the Jewish People Policy Institute, commented, “The threat to the government looks more serious than ever.”
Netanyahu, who has been in power longer than any other Israeli leader, has relied heavily on ultra-Orthodox parties for support. Following UTJ’s exit, his coalition now holds a slim majority of just 61 out of 120 parliamentary seats. This makes Netanyahu more vulnerable to pressure from other factions, particularly far-right parties that oppose any moves to conclude the war in Gaza.
If another ultra-Orthodox party decides to exit, Netanyahu could find himself in a minority government, making it exceedingly difficult to govern. Although this political turmoil might not halt ceasefire discussions, it could limit Netanyahu’s flexibility with Hamas.
The exemption policy for ultra-Orthodox men dates back to Israel’s founding. Initially designed to preserve religious studies, these exemptions have ballooned into a point of significant social tension. Most Jewish Israelis view them as unfair, especially given the financial support many ultra-Orthodox receive while they prioritize religious studies over work.
While ultra-Orthodox leaders argue that their religious commitments serve the country, many see this as a privilege that further divides society. A court ruling last year indicated that military service exemptions for ultra-Orthodox men could not continue without new legislation, pushing Netanyahu’s coalition to seek a legislative solution, thus leading to the exit of UTJ.
In the meantime, Netanyahu has 48 hours to broker a compromise with the departing faction, even as pressure mounts for a resolution to the conflict in Gaza. The Supreme Court has deemed the existing exemption system discriminatory, complicating the political landscape.
While his adversaries are currently unable to call for a parliamentary dissolution until the end of the year, the impending summer recess may allow time for potential negotiations to continue. Cabinet Minister Miki Zohar expressed optimism about the possibility of reconciliation with the ultra-Orthodox party, suggesting that “God willing, everything will be fine.”
However, once the UTJ members formally resign, Netanyahu’s majority will be perilously narrow. The far-right members could threaten to exit if Netanyahu compromises too much, particularly regarding Hamas’s demands for a ceasefire.
Hamas seeks a complete end to hostilities, while Netanyahu’s partners favor a temporary truce, arguing for a need to dismantle Hamas entirely before any ceasefire. Should he lose additional coalition partners, Netanyahu would face an unstable political future.
Some analysts suggest Netanyahu might agree to a brief, temporary pause in fighting, possibly around 60 days. This could allow him to both address the political pressures at home and navigate international expectations, especially from the U.S. administration, which has been encouraging a wrap-up of the conflict.
As political scientist Gayil Talshir from Hebrew University notes, Netanyahu may use this ceasefire period to shift the focus from draft exemption debates to more favorable narratives, such as pursuing normalization deals with other Arab nations.
While elections are scheduled for November 2026, the outcome of the next few weeks could reshape that timeline significantly. If Netanyahu manages to fulfill U.S. expectations and secure a resolution in Gaza, he may position himself favorably for early elections next year.
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Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel, General news, Gaza Strip, Israel government, War and unrest, International agreements, Hamas, MIDEAST WARS, AP Top News, 2024-2025 Mideast Wars, Religion, Israel-Hamas war, World news, Miki Zohar, Politics, Donald Trump
