New Delhi: The ongoing trade war between the US and China is likely to boost Indian exporters looking to increase shipments to the US. Experts, including S C Ralhan from the Federation of Indian Export Organisations, believe that higher tariffs on Chinese goods will shift demand towards Indian products. In fact, India exported goods worth $86 billion to the US in 2024-25.
Ralhan noted that the US plans to impose a 100% tariff on certain Chinese imports starting November 1, 2025. This hike will bring the tariff on Chinese goods to about 130%. This decision follows China’s announcement of stricter controls on rare earth exports, which are vital for US technology sectors like defense and electric vehicles.
Currently, US tariffs on Indian goods stand at 50%, which is already higher than the 30% tariffs on Chinese products. A textile exporter remarked that this new trade dynamic creates a significant opportunity for Indian companies. “This gives us an edge,” they said, pointing out that higher customs duties on Chinese products mean more chances for Indian goods in the American market.
Toy exporter Manu Gupta added that these tariffs could attract attention from buyers in both countries. “High duties level the playing field,” Gupta mentioned, noting that major retailers, such as Target, are interested in new products from Indian exporters.
A report from the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) highlighted that rising trade tensions are expected to impact global prices for electric vehicles, wind turbines, and semiconductors. The US relies heavily on China for many products, including electronics, textiles, and solar panels.
In 2024-25, the US continued to be India’s top trading partner. Bilateral trade reached about $131.84 billion, with India exporting $86.5 billion. The US represents roughly 18% of India’s total goods exports and about 6% of its imports.
As both nations work on a bilateral trade agreement, the shifting landscape offers both challenges and opportunities for Indian exporters. While geopolitical tensions can create obstacles, they may also pave the way for India to capture a larger share of the US market.
For more insights, see the full report from GTRI here.
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