How the US Deal with Azerbaijan and Armenia Could Impact Iran and Russia: Key Implications to Watch

Iran has expressed deep concern over what it sees as foreign interference in a peace deal between Azerbaijan and Armenia, facilitated by former President Donald Trump. This agreement aims to end decades of conflict, coming to a head with a treaty signed in Washington. Central to the deal is a corridor along Iran’s border that will connect Azerbaijan with its exclave, Nakhchivan.

This corridor, which runs through southern Armenia, has been a long-standing goal for Baku. Under this agreement, a US consortium will manage the corridor, operating it under Armenian sovereignty for 99 years. Iranian commentators warn that this could further isolate Iran in the region, creating what they describe as “geopolitical suffocation.”

Control of this strategic corridor has been a major hurdle in reaching a peace treaty. This move also highlights Russia’s waning influence in the region. Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan seems to be steering his country toward closer ties with the West and potentially the European Union. Interestingly, Russia’s focus on the Ukraine conflict has hindered its ability to oppose this new development.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry asserted that any communication networks should respect the sovereignty of regional nations. Abbas Mousavi, a former Iranian ambassador, expressed skepticism about Trump’s involvement in this situation, calling it “interesting, offensive, and dangerous.” However, Iran finds itself in a weak position to contest a deal seen as beneficial by Azerbaijan, Armenia, and the US.

The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan has its roots in the late 1980s, centered around Nagorno-Karabakh, an area predominantly inhabited by ethnic Armenians. This region broke away from Azerbaijan with Armenian support. After regaining control of Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023, Azerbaijan witnessed a mass exodus of ethnic Armenians fleeing to Armenia.

The proposed transit corridor, dubbed the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity,” would stretch 20 miles. This plan, originally broached during the Biden administration, enables US presence right near the Iranian border, raising concerns in Tehran about losing access to important trade routes through Georgia.

The deal could integrate Armenia into the Middle Corridor project, a significant trade route linking Europe and China that bypasses Iran and Russia. Officials in Armenia view this as a potential economic lifeline for the landlocked nation.

The White House has touted benefits from this corridor, which would enhance connectivity, while asserting respect for Armenia’s sovereignty. The plan involves multiple transport modes, including roadways and fiber-optic lines, aimed at deterring military conflicts.

In addition to border adjustments, Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev emphasized the need for Armenia to amend its constitution to drop claims over Azerbaijani territory. While Armenia plans a constitutional referendum in 2027, pressure from Azerbaijan could breed resentment among Armenians.

Despite this, Aliyev, backed by Turkey, stands to gain significantly from the agreement. He noted that the historic nature of the signing—conducted with US involvement—should prevent any party from withdrawing. He even suggested Trump should be considered for the Nobel Peace Prize for his role.

Overall, this emerging dynamic illustrates a shifting landscape in the South Caucasus. Heightened vigilance from Iran, along with the potential for deeper US engagement, marks a new chapter in a long-standing conflict.



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