How Trump’s Tariffs Could Spike Prices: What You Need to Know About Food Inflation on Fruits and Vegetables

Let’s talk about something that affects everyone: food prices. Did you know that in 2024, nearly all the tomatoes imported into the U.S. came from just two countries? A whopping 99% came from Mexico (86%) and Canada (13%). It’s a similar story with other staples:

• 99% of imported lettuce came from Mexico (88%) and Canada (11%).
• 88% of imported carrots came from Mexico (49%) and Canada (39%).
• 70% of avocados were also sourced from Mexico.
• 67% of berries (strawberries, blueberries, raspberries, and blackberries) came from Mexico (63%) and Canada (4%).
• 60.7% of onions and garlic came from Mexico (52%) and Canada (8.7%).
• 57.8% of green beans and peas were imported from Mexico (56%) and Canada (1.8%).

These numbers show just how dependent the U.S. is on these countries for fresh produce. With President Trump’s new 25% tariffs on these imports, shoppers might feel the pinch every time they fill their grocery carts. Higher prices for fruits and vegetables could play a big role in the upcoming presidential election, influencing how voters view economic issues.

This tariff situation also complicates things at border crossings, like those in Pharr and Laredo, Texas, and Nogales, Arizona. Trade routes that are usually busy may see delays and increased costs, impacting both imports and exports.

In a previous piece, I explored how tariffs can ripple across industries. If Canada and Mexico retaliate, as they have hinted, it could affect a lot of businesses in the U.S. These two countries account for a huge portion of American exports—about 72% of all categories rely on trade with them. That’s why a trade dispute with Mexico and Canada is more concerning than one with China.

Alongside these developments, Canada has announced plans to retaliate against the U.S. tariffs, and Mexico is expected to make its decision soon. The stock market has already shown signs of worry. The biggest issue isn’t just the tariffs themselves, but the uncertainty they create and how they might hurt the trust between the U.S. and its closest trading partners for years to come.

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