Last week, a Chinese spacecraft came shockingly close to colliding with a Starlink satellite—just 655 feet away. This close call highlights a rising danger in low-Earth orbit (LEO). A recent study indicates that such near misses are increasingly common, raising alarms about potential collisions.
The research, which hasn’t been peer-reviewed yet, reveals a troubling trend. If satellite operators were suddenly unable to avoid collisions, a catastrophic crash could occur in as little as 2.8 days. This scenario could lead to a significant debris problem known as Kessler syndrome, where a single collision spawns many more, filling LEO with debris and crippling satellite networks.
Experts warn that we might be on the edge of this situation, claiming it may already be too late to prevent chaos in our skies.
### Understanding the Risk
Rather than solely focusing on the worst-case scenarios, the study introduces the Collision Realization and Significant Harm (CRASH) Clock. This clock measures the urgency of potential for catastrophic events. Right now, it sits at 2.8 days—dramatically down from 121 days just a few years ago, mainly due to the surge of satellites. In 2019, there were about 13,700 objects in LEO, and by 2025, that number could hit nearly 24,200. Satellites in LEO now pass closer than 0.6 miles (1 kilometer) approximately every 22 seconds.
### Starlink’s Role
Starlink, run by SpaceX, is the biggest player in LEO. With around 9,300 working satellites, it makes up a significant chunk of all active satellites, as noted by Harvard’s Jonathan McDowell. As SpaceX continues to send more Starlinks into orbit, the risk grows.
In the densest portions of Starlink’s constellation, satellites come within 0.6 miles of each other every 11 minutes. Each satellite averages about 41 collision-avoidance maneuvers a year, which is about one every 1.8 minutes for the entire network. Historically, this number has been doubling every six months.
However, losing the ability to change their paths would be disastrous. A major solar storm or a software failure could severely disrupt maneuvering capabilities.
### The Bigger Picture
The CRASH clock and rising collision risks aren’t just concerns for Starlink; they affect all maneuverable satellites in LEO. Understanding these risks and addressing them now is crucial for maintaining the safety and functionality of our satellites. As the satellite environment becomes busier, the need for better regulations and practices in satellite deployment has never been more urgent.
Researchers are hoping that awareness around the CRASH clock will prompt quick action from decision-makers to avoid a collision disaster that could haunt our orbital space for decades.
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Kessler syndrome,orbital debris,satellites,Starlink
