The death of Ali Khamenei in February 2026 during US–Israeli airstrikes on Tehran sparked a major shift in Iran’s political landscape. This event has reignited a long-standing debate: should the supreme authority in Iran be based on religious legitimacy or political power?
Soon after his father’s death, the Assembly of Experts appointed Mojtaba Khamenei as the new Supreme Leader. While he has held significant influence behind the scenes, his clerical status isn’t widely recognized among the traditional Shiʿi scholars.
The Supreme Leader’s role is defined by several articles in Iran’s Constitution. Article 5 establishes the principle of velayat-e faqih, which means that a qualified jurist should govern in the absence of the Twelfth Imam. Articles 107, 109, and 110 outline how the Assembly of Experts selects the Supreme Leader and the necessary qualifications for the position.
Looking back to 1989, after Khomeini’s death, Iran faced a similar leadership vacuum. The Assembly chose Ali Khamenei, who, despite not having high clerical standing, became the leader. This decision was later enshrined in a constitutional amendment, highlighting how political needs can reshape constitutional interpretation.
Mojtaba Khamenei now faces a parallel situation. His selection occurred during a time of war and ongoing chaos, raising questions about the legitimacy of the decision-making process. It’s unclear how the Assembly deliberated: whether physically met, voted remotely, or consulted in various emergencies. This lack of transparency has fueled public debate.
For years, Mojtaba has tried to bolster his clerical credentials by teaching advanced jurisprudence, a move many interpreted as preparation for leadership. However, some senior grand ayatollahs viewed it as an attempt to artificially create authority. Reports suggest some even questioned the legitimacy of his scholarship.
In the Iranian system, power doesn’t solely flow from official titles. It’s often based on connections within the leadership network. For over two decades, Mojtaba has wielded significant influence without being a public figure, operating as a gatekeeper and coordinator for security forces.
His close ties to the Revolutionary Guards, especially during the 2009 unrest, showcased the profound relationship between the Supreme Leader and the security apparatus. This alliance strengthened after the protests, making them essential to maintaining the leadership’s power.
The death of President Ebrahim Raisi in 2024 added yet another twist to the power dynamics in Iran. He had been seen as a strong contender for leadership due to his clerical credentials, narrowing the field and spotlighting Mojtaba Khamenei.
His rise to power does not resolve the tensions within the Islamic Republic. Like his father, Mojtaba lacks universal clerical legitimacy. His authority relies on political coalitions and backing from the Revolutionary Guards, a connection that is now more crucial than ever in light of ongoing conflict.
Today, Iran faces profound uncertainties. The war complicates Mojtaba’s leadership, eroding the support networks that facilitated his ascent. In 1989, Ali Khamenei rose to power in a post-war context; Mojtaba now inherits a similar situation where the compatibility of political necessity and religious authority remains complex and fraught with challenges.
The future for Iran’s constitutional framework hinges less on religious influence and more on power dynamics, similar to the past. As these events unfold, both the internal and external reactions to Mojtaba’s leadership will shape the next chapter of Iran’s history.
Source link
Iran news, Iran politics, Iran economy, Iran government, Iran nuclear, Iran Covid, Iran media. Iran and the United States, Iran-US, US sanctions, Iran, Middle East, Iran and China
