In Iran, hardliners are actively trying to weaken President Masoud Pezeshkian, who was seen as a chance for reform just a year ago. He hoped to negotiate with the United States for a deal on Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for lifting sanctions. However, these plans are now in jeopardy.
Recently, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, rejected the idea of talks with Washington. This happened after President Trump reinstated strict sanctions against Iran. Trump even sent Khamenei a letter urging him to negotiate, warning that failing to do so could lead to military action. “If military action is needed, it would be a disaster for them,” Trump said in an interview.
Hardline politicians are targeting Pezeshkian’s support by pushing for the impeachment of key government figures. For instance, they recently impeached the economy minister and forced the resignation of Mohammad Javad Zarif, a central figure in the 2015 nuclear deal.
Hardliners are firm in their belief that they need to shield Iran from external pressures while focusing on strengthening their economy through domestic resources and partnerships with nations like China. They think that by relying on local capabilities, Iran can withstand U.S. sanctions without needing to negotiate.
The economic situation in Iran is dire. The national currency, the rial, has lost 60% of its value against the dollar, pushing essential goods out of reach for many. This financial distress is causing citizens to lose faith in Pezeshkian, who has struggled to fulfill his campaign promises amid economic hardship.
There is growing concern within political circles regarding Pezeshkian’s ability to finish his term, which lasts until 2028. Even members of his own reformist faction are beginning to criticize him, signaling that his government might face more challenges ahead.
Analysts observe that Pezeshkian’s fate largely hinges on his relationship with Khamenei, which appears stable for now. Some believe that Khamenei will protect him to maintain stability in the government, but hardliners want to see Pezeshkian step away from reformist policies that they view as too lenient.
The hardliners’ actions might be more than just an immediate response to U.S. pressure. They also seem to be positioning themselves for a future without Khamenei, who is 85 years old. Speculation about who will succeed him is growing, and hardliners fear that any détente with the U.S. could give reformists an edge in the succession process.
A lot hangs in the balance. Pezeshkian now faces a crucial decision regarding fuel prices, a sensitive issue that led to protests in the past. Currently, petrol is heavily subsidized at about $0.01 per liter, but keeping this rate is increasingly unsustainable.
The situation is tense, and Pezeshkian’s political capital is waning. Public trust in him has declined sharply, and many wonder if he can regain support if negotiations with the U.S. are reignited. Without a change in direction, there may be little hope left for his government.
