For many climate advocates, the recent COP30 climate talks in Belém, Brazil, brought disappointment. Over 190 countries attended, yet no clear plans emerged to phase out fossil fuels, a critical step scientists agree is needed to combat climate change.
One reason for this stagnation? The absence of the United States at the summit. While over 100 U.S. local leaders joined the talks, there were no representatives from the Trump administration—marking the first time in COP’s 30-year history that the largest economy and historical carbon emitter was officially missing.
Matt McDonald, an international relations professor at the University of Queensland, suggested that some countries might have felt relief without Trump’s presence, especially given his past dismissal of climate change and the U.S. exit from the Paris agreement. However, during the negotiations, this void may have encouraged oil-rich nations, like Russia and Saudi Arabia, to push back against plans for a transition away from fossil fuels.
The final agreement at COP30, much like the Paris Agreement of 2015, shockingly lacked any mention of “fossil fuels.” Climate scientist Michael E. Mann succinctly stated that a climate deal without addressing fossil fuels is like a ceasefire that ignores active conflicts.
Interestingly, the first draft of an agreement at COP30 proposed several moves toward reducing fossil fuel use and gained support from over 80 nations. UK Energy Secretary Ed Miliband emphasized the urgency of this issue, stating it needed to be central to COP discussions. Genevieve Guenther, of End Climate Silence, noted an unprecedented clarity in the calls for action.
However, the dynamics shifted as major oil powers lobbied for the removal of the phase-out proposal. By the end of the talks, the goal to keep warming below 2 degrees Celsius appeared even more elusive.
Despite this challenging landscape, McDonald pointed out some positive trends. The world is making strides in reducing CO2 emissions, largely due to significant global investments in renewable energy. For instance, some scientists believe emissions might be nearing their peak. China, despite its ongoing investments in fossil fuels, has made record investments in renewable energy and aims to cut carbon emissions by at least 7% by 2035.
Local U.S. efforts are crucial too. California, for example, is a major player in the global emissions landscape due to its size and active carbon trading market. Governor Gavin Newsom, attending COP30, framed Trump’s absence as an opportunity for local leaders to take charge.
Even with lackluster international agreements, groups of countries are stepping up. A coalition of 24 nations, led by Colombia and the Netherlands, plans to hold a counter-conference to push for fossil fuel phase-out strategies.
The landscape may seem bleak, but as Guenther suggests, there is potential for coalitions of climate-focused nations to develop strategies that might compel larger fossil fuel producers to change. While the road ahead is challenging, a path forward may still exist through innovation, state-level action, and international alliances.
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