Scientists have come up with a new way to predict when the next ice age could happen. But not to worry—it won’t start for at least 10,000 years.
According to a recent study published in Science, the onset of the next ice age is being pushed back due to climate change caused by humans. This team of researchers discovered how Earth’s orbit around the sun affects glacial cycles over thousands of years.
For the first time, they identified which orbital changes most influence when ice ages begin and end. Their findings link climate changes—like the shift from ice ages to our current warm period—to these orbital shifts.
Stephen Barker, a professor at Cardiff University, expressed surprise at their findings, saying, “We were amazed to find such a clear imprint of the different orbital parameters on the climate record. It is quite hard to believe that the pattern has not been seen before.”
The study builds on the Milankovitch theory, proposed over a hundred years ago. This theory suggests that slight shifts in Earth’s orbit, its tilt, and its wobble shape long-term climate changes, including the timing of ice ages.
By analyzing nearly a million years of climate records, the researchers spotted a distinct pattern. This pattern allows them to make predictions about future climate changes.
Currently, we are in the Holocene period, which began around 11,700 years ago after the last ice age. This is known as an interglacial period. Normally, the next ice age would begin in about 10,000 years. However, the study indicates that this transition is unlikely due to human-induced carbon emissions affecting the climate’s natural progress.
Gregor Knorr, one of the study’s co-authors, stated, “Human emissions have already diverted the climate from its natural course.” This diversion could prevent the next ice age from occurring on its expected timeline.
The full extent of human impact on climate changes is still being studied. The researchers plan to look deeper into how these changes could affect the start of the next ice age. Understanding this will help inform decisions about greenhouse gas emissions today, which play a crucial role in shaping our future climate.
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