In 1919, during a time of crisis caused by the Russian Revolution, World War I, and the fall of empires, the Irish writer William Butler Yeats warned about the chaos of the world: “Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold.” Recently, President Joe Biden echoed this sentiment at the United Nations, suggesting we face another critical moment in history. He believes the decisions we make today will shape our future for years to come.
Biden reflected on past upheavals, recalling the turbulent early 1970s, when he was elected as a senator amid the Cold War and conflicts in the Middle East and Vietnam. He emphasized that humanity has faced many watershed crises in the past, and now, with wars increasing in Ukraine and the Middle East and societal divisions growing, it’s time for collective action again.
This notion of our current time being an “inflection point” is not new for Biden; it’s a key concept in his speeches. Leaders worldwide, including Ursula von der Leyen, have adopted this idea too. They warn that today’s world is characterized by the rise of autocratic powers, territorial conflicts, and a looming climate crisis, which some scholars refer to as a “polycrisis.”
History shows us that every generation faces significant turning points. The French Revolution, for example, overturned centuries of monarchy. Even the critics of this upheaval acknowledged its importance, highlighting how quickly it reshaped the political landscape.
Other notable turning points, like the revolutions of 1848 or the aftermath of World War I, were also seen as times of significant change. Leaders like Woodrow Wilson viewed the Great War as a fight for democracy, while Lenin called for global revolution after the Russian Revolution in 1917. Yet, the blunders following World War I, such as the Versailles Treaty, contributed to the next global crisis—World War II.
The end of that war too was heralded as a turning point, leading to the establishment of the UN and NATO, and promising a new era of prosperity. But as history unfolded, the rise of various global tensions challenged earlier notions of peace, leading to events like the attacks on September 11, which further shifted perceptions about security and freedom.
Turning points are critical because they reshape our realities irrevocably. However, focusing solely on these events can be misleading. Often, deeper societal changes are at play, leading to these pivotal moments. Historian Fernand Braudel argued that significant transformations develop over decades and are only visible during crucial events.
Many historians have examined turning points, questioning their real significance. Traditionally, the focus has been on dramatic events and influential figures. However, critics argue that such an approach overlooks the broader social and economic forces that shape history.
One sharp critic was Karl Marx, who emphasized that while people shape their history, they do so under circumstances defined by the past. Similarly, scholars from the Annales school like Braudel advocated for studying the deeper structures beneath surface events, stressing that long-term trends often lead to significant changes rather than isolated incidents.
Understanding events in context often reveals that what appears significant at first glance may be less impactful when viewed alongside long-running societal trends. For instance, the momentous events of 1789 cannot be grasped without considering the Enlightenment’s intellectual shifts and material conditions causing tensions between various societal classes. Similarly, the events of 1914 stemmed from years of intricate diplomatic relations and rising nationalism.
In our present situation, leaders rightly note that we face another inflection point. Yet, to navigate it successfully, we must address the underlying issues—like the resurgence of nationalism, growing inequality, and the weakening of a stable international order—rooted in even earlier historical contexts. Recognizing that we are at a pivotal moment is just the beginning; to truly overcome it, we need to address the complex factors that have led us here. History is indeed a long game, and understanding it requires a deep dive into the layers of change over time.
