The number of satellites in Earth’s orbit is skyrocketing, and soon, it might be too crowded for safe operations. A recent study highlights this growing concern, showing that 1.4% of satellites were forced to perform over 10 collision-avoidance maneuvers per month by early 2025. This might sound low, but it means that approximately 340 satellites are frequently dodging space debris.
Back in 2019, only 13,700 objects orbited in low Earth orbit (LEO). Fast forward to 2025, and that number has jumped to over 24,185—an increase of 76%. Predictions suggest we could see up to 70,000 satellites in LEO by the end of the decade. That’s more than five times the number from just a few years ago.
Maya Harris, a co-author and MIT graduate, pointed out that spending too much time on collision avoidance isn’t ideal for operators. “They want to focus on their missions, not constantly worrying about collisions,” she said.
The study used data from U.S. Space Command to assess collision risks. Each time two objects came within 66 feet of each other, it counted as a close call. Different operators have varying standards for when to dodge. For instance, NASA acts when risks are over 1 in 100,000, while SpaceX’s Starlink takes precautions for risks as low as 1 in a million.
Hugh Lewis, a space debris expert from the University of Birmingham, emphasized the operation disruptions frequent maneuvers cause. “For Earth-observation satellites, a course change can significantly disrupt their tasks,” he shared. In contrast, satellites like Starlink can be more flexible with their orbits.
The study highlights how much these maneuvers can raise the risk of collisions. Lewis noted that the chance of an in-orbit collision might already be around 10% within a year. A collision would not only create debris but also increase risks for other satellites nearby.
In the first half of 2025, SpaceX’s Starlink performed 145,000 collision-avoidance maneuvers, averaging four per satellite each month. Lewis remarked that they seem to manage this well so far, but the challenges may increase as orbital traffic grows.
Some orbital altitudes are already busier than others, particularly between 400 and 600 kilometers, where many satellites are active, and between 700 and 800 kilometers, which is cluttered with debris. Harris states, “While most of space isn’t full yet, certain areas definitely are.”
The way forward may involve better coordination among operators, such as launching fewer satellites into crowded orbits. However, Lewis expresses doubt about whether global cooperation can happen. With countries like China planning extensive satellite networks, coordinating efforts may prove complex.
Experts agree that addressing these challenges is crucial to maintain safety in space. If the current trend continues, the risk of collisions could increase rapidly, impacting the capabilities of satellite technology globally.
This study was featured in Acta Astronautica, highlighting the critical need to reconsider how we manage our shared orbital space.
