A recently discovered asteroid, named 2024 YR4, is drawing attention for its unexpected potential to hit the Moon. Initially, NASA calculated a very slim chance of it impacting Earth in 2032, but that likelihood is now down to just 0.004%. The focus has shifted to the Moon, where the chance of an impact has increased from 1.7% to 3.8% for December 22, 2032. This new estimation comes from advanced observations using telescopes, including the James Webb Space Telescope.
Despite this jump in probability, NASA assures us there’s still a 96.2% chance the asteroid will miss the Moon. Even if it does collide, it wouldn’t alter the Moon’s orbit. That being said, the potential for an impact is intriguing. It would allow scientists to study how the Moon reacts to such events in real-time.
The James Webb Space Telescope also provided insights into the size of the asteroid, which measures between 53 and 67 meters—comparable to a ten-story building. Since its discovery in December 2024 in Chile, numerous other celestial objects have zipped past Earth closer than the Moon, highlighting how active our cosmic neighborhood is.
Asteroids striking Earth happen more often than we realize, with many smaller fragments burning up in our atmosphere unnoticed. However, a hit on the Moon would be unique and a significant event for researchers.
Professor Mark Burchell from the University of Kent called a lunar impact “a great experiment and a perfect opportunity” to observe and understand these celestial collisions. He believes telescopes and possibly binoculars would capture such an event, offering a rare viewing experience.
As we move closer to the potential impact date, astronomers are eager to gather more data. The James Webb Space Telescope will conduct another observation next month to refine our understanding of this asteroid’s path. The excitement around 2024 YR4 reminds us of the wonders of space and the importance of monitoring objects that wander through our solar system.
For more detailed information, NASA’s official page provides updates on their findings and ongoing assessments of asteroids.
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