Is the U.S. Abandoning Its Pivot to Asia as Trump Turns Away from India?

New Delhi, India – When U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin met in Alaska, their discussions echoed far beyond the shores of both nations, reaching India. India holds a unique position, balancing its long-standing relationship with Russia and its growing ties with the U.S.

Since the Cold War ended, India has shifted closer to the U.S. This trend accelerated under Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama and continued through Trump’s presidency into Joe Biden’s. Analysts believe this alliance was partly a strategy to counterbalance China’s influence in the Asia-Pacific region. However, recent actions have sparked concerns about this partnership’s stability.

Trump’s administration imposed steep tariffs on Indian imports, hitting 50%, which was one of the highest rates applied to any nation. A significant portion of these tariffs targeted India’s purchases of Russian oil amid ongoing tensions in Ukraine. Meanwhile, China’s energy imports from Russia faced fewer consequences from U.S. tariffs, raising alarms about the U.S. approach to friend versus foe dynamics.

Milan Vaishnav from the Carnegie Endowment notes that this might mark a troubling shift in relations between the U.S. and India. “Trust between the two countries has eroded sharply,” he observed. Reports suggest that in light of the tariff situation, many in India’s government are reassessing their stance on U.S. partnerships.

Historically, India’s leaders have maintained a cautious yet progressive relationship with Washington, hoping to strengthen economic and security ties. Modi has engaged with Trump directly, celebrating their friendship publicly. However, the personal connections and rallies haven’t shielded India from harsh economic measures.

Experts highlight that this tension arises partly from differing personalities. As Praveen Donthi of the International Crisis Group explains, Modi and Trump’s relationship has hit rough patches, complicating diplomatic negotiations. India has skillfully avoided sanctions in the past, but current challenges push it toward reevaluating its strategy.

Unlike traditional U.S. allies like Japan or South Korea, India has never signed a military treaty with Washington. This unusual position allows India to flex its diplomatic muscles between rival powers, although it risks further conflict if sanctions increase.

The U.S. “Rebalance to Asia” policy established during the Obama era aimed to fortify relationships in the Asia-Pacific to keep China’s growth in check. However, Trump’s departure from this strategy, including a withdrawal from crucial trade agreements like the Trans-Pacific Partnership, muddied the waters for regional allies.

As India navigates these complex relationships, it has ramped up its diplomacy with Russia and China. National Security Adviser Ajit Doval’s visit to Moscow and upcoming talks involving Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar indicate a strategic pivot. Modi’s potential trip to China later in the year raises eyebrows as well.

The idea of reviving the trilateral collaboration among Russia, India, and China (RIC), proposed by Lavrov, is gathering attention, yet experts caution that the cooperative framework may be more symbolic than substantive.

India’s strategic independence attempts could have unintended consequences. Michael Kugelman, a senior fellow at the Asia Pacific Foundation, suggests that while India won’t abandon its historical ties to Russia, accommodating U.S. demands could come with risks.

Domestically, the political landscape may shift as Modi utilizes this moment to strengthen his standing against perceived external threats. His firm stance on energy imports and the existing agricultural dilemma showcases his balancing act between foreign pressures and domestic expectations.

Despite recent strains, analysts like Jon Danilowicz, a former U.S. diplomat, suggest that a complete breakdown in U.S.-India relations is in neither nation’s interest, pushing for continued cooperation in various sectors.

The unfolding dynamics signal an era of uncertainty, but with careful navigation, there’s room for both nations to reforge their alliance and tackle mutual challenges more effectively.



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