James Webb Telescope Reveals Increased Risk of ‘City-Killer’ Asteroid 2024 YR4 Impacting the Moon in 2032

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) recently focused on the asteroid 2024 YR4. This rock could be a potential hazard, but Earth is safe—at least until it swings back around in 2028. The latest findings show there’s a slight chance, about 4.3%, that it could collide with the moon on December 22, 2032. This is an increase from earlier estimates of 3.8% after the JWST first captured images of the asteroid in March.

“As we gather more data, the chances of an impact can change,” NASA officials stated. They plan to continue monitoring the asteroid when its path brings it closer again in a few years.

Asteroid 2024 YR4 is roughly the size of a small building, measuring between 174 to 220 feet across—similar to the Leaning Tower of Pisa. If it were to collide with Earth, it could unleash destruction equivalent to 500 Hiroshima bombs. Thankfully, it poses no immediate threat to our planet.

Discovered in December 2024, experts realized this asteroid’s orbit crosses Earth’s path. Initial projections indicated a potential collision with Earth in 2032, with the odds peaking at 3.1% in February. However, thanks to more detailed observations, scientists have now lowered the risk of an Earth impact to zero.

The likelihood of it striking the moon, however, continues to grow. Although it would create a new crater, scientists view a moon impact as an opportunity for research. Alan Fitzsimmons, an astrobiologist at Queen’s University Belfast, shared, “It would give us a first look at how known asteroids form lunar craters, which is pretty exciting!”

Recent trends on social media show mixed feelings among the public. Some are concerned about the potential risks, while others are excited about the chance to observe a lunar impact and learn from it. A NASA report notes that such events help scientists refine their models of asteroid behavior and impact predictions.

Currently, asteroid 2024 YR4 is moving away from Earth, making it difficult for scientists to track with ground-based telescopes. However, JWST took advantage of some available observation time to get two clear views of the asteroid in April and May. It’s uncertain whether JWST will observe it again when it approaches Earth and the moon in 2028.

With ongoing studies and technological advancements, our understanding of near-Earth objects is set to grow. Observations like those from JWST are crucial for our safety and knowledge about the cosmos.

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