LeBrun: Why the Dallas Stars’ High-Scoring Potential Isn’t Shining—What’s the Issue?

EDMONTON — Mikko Rantanen is his own toughest critic. He has high expectations for himself and knows how crucial his offensive skills are for his team’s success. Recently, however, he’s gone seven games without scoring a goal, which frustrates him. After a tough 4-1 loss to the Edmonton Oilers, Rantanen admitted, “I try to help, but I haven’t been able to do it as much this series.”

It’s clear Rantanen isn’t alone in his struggles. Many players on the Stars are having a tough time finding the back of the net. This undeniable pressure weighs heavier on Rantanen, who is expected to lead offensively.

The Stars, despite boasting a deep roster, seem to have hit a wall. Wyatt Johnston, for instance, has lost confidence at a critical moment in the playoffs. This lack of scoring is puzzling because the team excelled in generating chances earlier in the playoffs, easily beating opponents like Colorado and Winnipeg. What has changed? The Oilers have tightened their defense, limiting the Stars’ chances for odd-man rushes and effective net-front opportunities.

In Game 4, the Stars registered 39 attempts in the first period and had a 20-8 advantage in five-on-five chances, yet they ended the period down 1-0. Stars coach Pete DeBoer noted the difficulty of being in that position after such a strong start, emphasizing that missing the net too often was a major issue.

Rantanen echoed this frustration, saying, “The start reminded me of the second period in Game 3. We were creating chances but still lost control of the game.” He’s right that playoffs bring a greater defensive focus, and scoring is more challenging. Despite being one of the highest-scoring teams during the regular season, the Stars have only scored twice in the last three games against the Oilers, who were expected to struggle with their goalie, Stuart Skinner.

Jason Robertson, who scored the Stars’ only goal in Game 4, shared his thoughts on the challenge: “Scoring chances are coming at a premium, but we need to keep pushing. Eventually, those shots will start going in.” But are the Stars typically feeling pressure that could lead to ‘overthinking’ their shots? Tyler Seguin sure thinks so, identifying that they need to focus on hitting the target more consistently. He remarked, “Just bear down a bit more.”

The playoffs aren’t just about skill; they often test players’ mental toughness. Rantanen is aware of the strain but insists that the team must stay positive. “We’ve got to reset. It’s not over until someone wins four games,” he said. He believes that a lead early in games is crucial, something the Stars have struggled with, as they’ve often fallen behind the Oilers.

The Stars need to capitalize on their home advantage, where they’ve performed well overall. The key now is for them to regroup before their next game. Rantanen sees the value in focusing on winning one game at a time, hoping it will shift the momentum.

As statistics show, teams that can score first in playoff games tend to have better outcomes. The Oilers have scored the first goal in all four games in this series, giving them not just the advantage but adding psychological pressure on the Stars.

Interestingly, the Oilers’ power play has also outshone the Stars, with five goals in the series compared to the Stars’ single power play goal last game. This aspect highlights how important special teams can be in tight playoff matchups.

The comparison between the current Oilers and the playoff struggles faced by the Colorado Avalanche presents an interesting narrative. The Avalanche struggled with their power play against the Stars in the first round—an obstacle that ultimately cost them their series. Now, the Oilers are excelling in this area, leading them to an edge in their matchup.

Going forward, the Stars need a strong performance at home and must steal a game in Edmonton to keep their playoff hopes alive. “It’s about winning one game and trying to get back on track,” Rantanen said. The team has the talent; it’s now all about regaining confidence and translating that into results.

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Dallas Stars, Edmonton Oilers, NHL