Each week during the NFL 2025 regular season, I’ll spotlight teams facing unique defenses and identify fantasy players who might shine.
Understanding Funnel Defenses
A funnel defense is one that tends to get a lot of pass attempts or runs against it. I analyze how opponents are playing against these defenses when the game is close—usually when the score is within a touchdown. Understanding these matchups helps us make better choices during the often stressful start-sit decisions we face each week.
With more stats available now than ever, this analysis continues to improve. Let’s dive into notable matchups for this week.
Pass Funnel Matchups
Saints vs. Bucs
This week, the Saints take on the Bucs, who struggle against the pass. This season, Tampa has faced a 62% neutral pass rate, making them the third-worst in the league in this regard. Recently, opponents are passing even more against them, averaging a 65% pass rate over the last few weeks.
In their first meeting, the Saints plugged in Tyler Shough at quarterback, who threw 51 times. Despite their struggles, players like Chris Olave, who has been heavily targeted, should be considered in lineups.
Juwan Johnson is also worth a look—he’s been effective in the slot against defenses like Tampa’s that allow many completions in that area.
Run Funnel Matchups
Commanders vs. Vikings
Washington’s Chris Rodriguez may lead the backfield this week. He’s nabbed 26 of the team’s last 48 carries. But against the Vikings, who have become a run funnel due to a high rate of runs against them, he may see plenty of work. So far, Minnesota has allowed teams to run the ball at a 50% clip when the game is close.
However, Washington’s overall pass-heavy strategy could mean a shift if they fall behind. Keep an eye on that, as it could impact the fantasy value of pass-catchers like Terry McLaurin.
Bears vs. Packers
The Bears are committed to the run, registering a low 52% neutral pass rate this season. They face a Green Bay defense that invites opponents to run, with just 42% of plays against them being passes in recent weeks.
D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai could see plenty of carries, especially if Chicago sticks to their game plan. If they run heavily, expect limited opportunities for Chicago’s wide receivers, which could hurt their fantasy value.
Broncos vs. Raiders
The Raiders have emerged as a surprising run funnel, allowing teams to run more often. Denver typically leans towards passing, but they could adjust their strategy. RJ Harvey has become a key player in the Broncos’ backfield and could thrive if Denver decides to establish the run early against Vegas.
Current Trends and Insights
According to recent NFL stats, teams that adapt based on defensive matchups often perform better in both real games and fantasy leagues. In 2023, 65% of defensive matchups showed a predictable tendency, allowing analysts to make more accurate projections.
Social media discussions often highlight players who suddenly appear in starting lineups due to favorable matchups. Following fan reactions on platforms like Twitter can provide insight into player visibility and potential breakout weeks.
By examining these matchups closely, we can identify players to watch, helping us make smarter decisions and enjoy the fantasy football experience.
