Counter-programming is a clever movie strategy. It brings different films out at the same time to attract varying audiences. This approach has been successful in the past. For example, in 2008, both “The Dark Knight” and “Mamma Mia!” debuted on the same day. Fast forward to 2023, “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” combined to gross $2.5 billion at the box office.
This week, Amazon brings an authorized documentary about Melania Trump to over 100 UK cinemas. It will face stiff competition from films like Jason Statham’s “Shelter,” an ape horror film called “Primate,” and Richard Linklater’s “Nouvelle Vague.”
However, initial ticket sales for the Melania film have been weak. Tim Richards, CEO of Vue, noted that only one ticket was sold for the first screening at their Islington branch, with a total of just a few sold across various branches. Even at Cineworld locations, ticket sales are underwhelming.
Richards explained that Vue must show films approved by the British Board of Film Classification (BBFC), regardless of public opinion. This decision wasn’t without backlash; many criticized the cinema chain for screening the film. One industry analyst speculated that the strategy behind this release might involve “four-walling,” where distributors guarantee payments to cinemas regardless of ticket sales. This tactic might explain why cinemas with usually better films are willing to screen a documentary with modest financial prospects.
Amazon paid $40 million for the film’s rights and invested an additional $35 million on marketing, often focusing on the U.S. market. The film showcases events from the 20 days leading up to Donald Trump’s return to power in January 2025.
Since this documentary’s trajectory is still uncertain, it’s challenging to predict its performance in the UK. Recent estimates suggest it might make between $1 million and $5 million in its opening weekend. In comparison, Michael Moore’s “Fahrenheit 9/11″ earned $24 million during its opening weekend back in 2004, while other recent documentaries have also performed better.
For context, other recent films across the pond saw modest results—”Prime Minister,” about former New Zealand leader Jacinda Ardern, took £33,000 in its opening weekend on 28 UK screens. On the other hand, “Becoming Victoria Wood,” released earlier this month, made £21,000 across 23 screens.
User reactions on social media also reflect a mixed sentiment. Many are questioning the necessity and integrity of the film. Some critics argue that documentaries should highlight pressing issues rather than focus on personal narratives of public figures.
On social media, Trump shared a teaser for the film, calling it a “MUST WATCH” and claiming tickets were selling quickly. Melania is an executive producer of the documentary and significantly shaped its content and marketing.
Brett Ratner, the director, is returning to the spotlight after facing accusations of sexual misconduct in 2017. He has denied all allegations. His participation adds layers to public perception, especially given his past controversies.
As the Melania documentary rolls out, it’s clear that while counter-programming can attract diverse audiences, success heavily depends on public interest and engagement. The current landscape of cinema shows that viewers are selective and dialogue-driven, making it more essential than ever for films to resonate with their audience.
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