New Delhi: A recent surge of violence in West Asia has put the region on edge. Following US and Israeli strikes on Iran, tensions are escalating rapidly, and India finds itself in a tough spot. The stakes are high, not just politically but also in terms of energy, safety of Indian citizens, and trade routes.
President Trump confirmed that major operations are now underway against Iran, which has responded with missile and drone attacks aimed at Israel. This escalation threatens to upset the delicate balance in the region. For India, it’s more than just international relations—this crisis touches on crucial areas like energy security and the safety of its citizens living abroad.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently visited Israel, where he reaffirmed India’s commitment to peaceful dialogue. He stressed that stability in West Asia is vital for India’s own security, highlighting the interconnectedness of regional peace and India’s national interests.
West Asia is essential for India’s energy needs. Any significant conflict could disrupt shipping routes, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, a key passage for oil transport. A disruption could hike global oil prices, causing economic pain for India, which relies heavily on energy imports.
India is particularly vulnerable to rising oil prices. Higher costs could lead to a widening current account deficit and increased inflation, putting pressure on the economy. Even if supplies remain consistent, the potential for increased insurance costs for oil tankers could inflate import bills further.
India is also home to nearly nine million citizens in West Asia, many of whom work in the Gulf states. A growing conflict might prompt India to revisit evacuation plans, similar to those during past crises in Yemen and Lebanon. This possibility highlights the dire need for effective communication and preparedness for all Indian nationals in the region.
In light of recent events, India’s Ministry of External Affairs has urged all parties to exercise restraint. The advisory also reminded Indian nationals to stay vigilant and abide by local security measures. With ongoing tensions, the Indian Embassy in Tel Aviv has advised its citizens in Israel to remain cautious and familiar with emergency protocols.
A broader conflict in the region could impact the remittance flows back to India—an important source of foreign exchange. Historically, remittances from the Gulf region have played a pivotal role in supporting India’s economy. Any instability could disrupt these financial lifelines, making the situation even more critical.
India’s diplomatic balancing act is complicated. While it has strong ties with Israel in various sectors, its historical and economic connections with Iran cannot be overlooked. The situation poses a stress test for India’s foreign policy, as openly supporting one side may alienate the other.
Strategic affairs expert C. Uday Bhaskar notes that the consequences of escalating violence will encompass energy security and the safety of the Indian diaspora. He emphasized the urgent need for India to ensure its energy supply remains stable, given its consumption of around two billion barrels of oil annually.
Recent comments from experts like Muddassir Quamar from Jawaharlal Nehru University warn about the potential for a broader conflict in West Asia. If the situation escalates, several regional actors could become involved, affecting not only oil supplies but also geopolitical dynamics.
As the crisis unfolds, India faces significant challenges: economic threats, the safety of its people abroad, and the delicate balance needed to maintain relationships—which are critical for its long-term strategic interests. With ongoing developments in West Asia, India’s path will require careful navigation to secure not just regional peace, but its own national interests.
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USA, ISRAEL, IRAN, INDIA, US ISRAEL ATTACK IRAN, MISSILES OVER WEST ASIA: WHY THE US-ISRAEL ATTACK ON IRAN IS A STRATEGIC TEST FOR INDIA
