MLB Final Week Showdown: Can the Tigers and Mets Avoid Heartbreaking Collapses?

Which scenario would be more embarrassing: the Detroit Tigers losing a massive 15.5-game lead in their division or the New York Mets missing the postseason despite a staggering $340 million payroll? With just a week left in the regular season, both situations appear possible.

The Tigers’ collapse would be historic. If they fail to clinch a playoff spot after holding such a substantial lead, it would rank among the largest gaps lost in MLB history. On the other hand, for the Mets, failing to make the playoffs with one of the highest payrolls in the game would surpass even their infamous 2007 meltdown, when they squandered a seven-game lead with only 17 games remaining.

Currently, the average fan might see the Mets as the bigger disappointment since they are tied for the final wild card spot with the Cincinnati Reds, a team whose payroll is almost three times smaller. The Reds currently hold the tiebreaker, putting the Mets in a precarious position. And to complicate matters, the Arizona Diamondbacks are just a game behind.

If the Tigers end up missing the playoffs after leading the Kansas City Royals and Minnesota Twins by 14 games just a couple of months ago, it would set a new benchmark for blown leads in modern baseball history, according to Stats Perform. Conversely, if the Guardians manage to erase that 15.5-game deficit, it would be the biggest comeback for a playoff spot in 125 years.

Historical examples highlight just how challenging it is to recover from such significant deficits. The 1914 Boston Braves rallied from last place to win the NL after trailing by 15 games. In 1951, the New York Giants overcame a 13-game gap to win the pennant, famously concluding their season in a dramatic three-game playoff against the Brooklyn Dodgers. More recently, the 1995 Seattle Mariners covered a 12.5-game deficit to take the AL West crown.

As of now, the Tigers lead the Guardians by one game. However, they are facing a three-game series in Cleveland that could be crucial. Despite the Tigers still having a chance as a wild card, their performance since July has been alarming. They’ve dropped to a 26-37 record and just had a dismal 0-6 homestand against tough opponents.

The Guardians, however, have been on fire, winning 15 of their last 17 games. Their pitchers have been particularly effective, allowing two runs or fewer in their last 17 games—an impressive franchise record. Despite key injuries impacting their roster, they have found a way to succeed.

Meanwhile, the struggling Mets have fallen from grace after a hot start. They were 45-24 in June, boasting the best record in baseball, but have since spiraled to a 35-53 record. Injuries have plagued key players, and their pitching has become a liability. With the team’s inconsistency, they find themselves clinging to hopes of a playoff spot, relying heavily on young, inexperienced pitchers.

In a twist of irony, both the Tigers and Mets find themselves at the center of conversations about what it means to invest heavily in a team. The potential failures of these high-payroll clubs could shape the future of MLB discussions about salary caps and competitive balance. Should teams like the Reds and Guardians advance to the playoffs while operating on tighter budgets, the pressures on owners and management will grow.

As the final week unfolds, fans will be eagerly watching. The stakes are high, and the outcomes could lead to significant changes in how teams operate in the future. With so much at play, all eyes will be on the Tigers, Mets, Guardians, and Reds in this thrilling postseason race.



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Cincinnati Reds, Cleveland Guardians, Detroit Tigers, New York Mets, MLB, Opinion