Space agencies are raising alarms about a potential asteroid impact on Earth in 2032. The asteroid, called 2024 YR4, now has about a 3% chance of hitting our planet, according to both NASA and the European Space Agency.
This risk has increased from earlier estimates—NASA originally suggested a 1% chance when YR4 was first detected. Just last week, the prediction was at 2.6%. While the odds are still low, this is the highest probability ever recorded for any asteroid.
NASA currently assesses the risk slightly higher at 3.1%, translating to about 1 in 32 odds of an impact. The ESA’s estimate is a bit lower, at 2.8%. Both numbers have risen since early February, when the asteroid’s chance of striking was assessed at just 2.2%.
If 2024 YR4 were to collide with Earth, scientists believe it would occur on December 22, 2032. However, they also note that as more observations are made, the likelihood of an impact could decrease significantly.
In preparation for potential threats, space agencies are not taking any chances. For instance, Beijing is establishing a “planetary defense” unit that plans to use techniques similar to NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) to deflect YR4 if necessary.
The asteroid measures between 130 and 300 feet in width. While it might not be large enough to cause global climate changes like the asteroid that led to the extinction of the dinosaurs, it could still unleash energy comparable to a nuclear explosion if it were to hit.
Bill Harwood, a space consultant for CBS News, emphasized the potential disaster, stating that although it wouldn’t have global ramifications, it would still be a significant catastrophe. Everyone is hoping for the best and monitoring the situation closely.
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