A NASA satellite launched 14 years ago is set to re-enter Earth’s atmosphere on Tuesday. The Van Allen Probe A, which weighs about 1,323 pounds, is expected to make this descent around 7:45 p.m. EDT. NASA predicts that most of the spacecraft will burn up upon re-entry, but some parts might survive. The chance of any debris causing harm to someone on the ground is quite low—about 1 in 4,200.
This situation isn’t unique. Outdated satellites and rocket remnants frequently fall back to Earth. The European Space Agency notes that these objects re-enter our atmosphere nearly every day. Most of the time, they disintegrate harmlessly, and if any survive, they usually land in oceans, which cover around 71% of the planet.
Predicting when and where uncontrolled spacecraft will land is tricky. Factors like atmospheric conditions and the satellite’s orbit make it challenging to provide exact timings. In the case of the Van Allen Probe A, the U.S. Space Force estimates a time frame of 24 hours.
The Van Allen Probes, which include Probe A and its twin, Probe B, launched on August 30, 2012. Their mission was to study the Van Allen belts, regions of high-energy radiation that protect Earth from solar storms and cosmic radiation. These belts are crucial because they prevent harmful solar particles from reaching satellites and can even shield power grids on Earth.
Astronauts, however, must pass through these belts, which leaves them vulnerable to radiation. The Van Allen missions have helped scientists better understand these belts. They discovered a temporary third belt that appears during intense solar flares. The mission provided significant insights but ended in 2019 when the probes ran out of fuel.
NASA initially thought the probes would re-enter the atmosphere in 2034. However, increased solar activity has sped up their return. The sun’s energy affects atmospheric density, which impacts satellites’ orbits. Interestingly, Probe B is not expected to re-enter until at least 2030.
This event also highlights the growing issue of space debris. As space missions become more frequent, thousands of pieces of junk are cluttering low-Earth orbit. These bits of debris move incredibly fast, up to 18,000 mph, posing serious risks to operational satellites and astronauts aboard the International Space Station.
Understanding and managing space debris is an ongoing challenge. As we launch more satellites, we must consider our presence in space and the impact of our technology on future generations. For more information on NASA’s work in space debris, check out their space debris tracking page.
