Donald Trump is shaking up how countries interact on the global stage. The world, once dominated by the U.S., is now transforming into a multipolar system, where various nations hold significant power.
This change has already started with the U.S. stepping back from important agreements like the World Health Organization and the Paris Climate Accords. Trump’s administration has also challenged the relevance of the United Nations and made deep cuts to the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID).
In this new era, Trump is more openly pushing U.S. interests, sometimes using tariffs as a tool to establish authority on the world stage. Although the U.S. remains powerful, its approach is shifting toward a more self-serving and isolationist stance. Secretary of State Marco Rubio noted that the old global order is outdated and now used against American interests.
As democracy faces challenges globally, countries with strong democratic frameworks, like New Zealand, may increasingly feel pressure. However, history shows that world orders constantly evolve, reflecting changes in economic and military power.
Past global orders have often revolved around dominant nations. For example, the Concert of Europe lasted from 1814 to 1914, and the Cold War established a bipolar world between the U.S. and the Soviet Union. More recently, the unipolar dominance of the U.S. followed the Cold War’s end.
Periods when one nation holds significant power are known as a “pax,” meaning peace in Latin. Examples include the Pax Romana, Pax Sinica, and Pax Britannica. Currently, Trump seems intent on dismantling the Pax Americana that has existed since 1945.
We are entering an unstable international landscape. The rise of authoritarianism aligns with the increasing influence of Asian powers like China and India. Together, they have some of the world’s largest economies and significant military budgets. This multipolar world means no single nation will hold all the cards moving forward.
China, India, and Russia prefer a balanced global power structure, emphasizing cooperation over dominance. As power shifts, it will be the principles guiding these relationships that matter most, rather than who is at the helm.
The current international setup is built on values that stem from American history and identity. According to political expert G. John Ikenberry, former President Woodrow Wilson envisioned a peaceful order based on collective security, democracy, and human rights.
As the U.S. grew stronger in the 20th century, it helped create institutions like the World Bank and the United Nations, fostering global trade and cooperation. Ikenberry describes this Pax Americana as relying on mutual agreement for security and prosperity.
However, Trump’s actions challenge the foundations of this liberal world, contributing to a trend toward authoritarianism, similar to the actions seen in Russia and China. This turbulent shift places countries like New Zealand in a vulnerable position. If targeted by tariffs or other economic moves, their stability could be further jeopardized.
Yet, not all world orders have been completely hegemonic. The Pax Britannica did not command global influence entirely, nor did Pax Americana include nations like China or India. This suggests that pockets of democracy may still thrive within a more authoritarian world.
The 2023 Democracy Index highlights that countries like New Zealand, the Nordic nations, and others rank highest because their citizens enjoy freedoms, hold fair elections, and engage actively in politics. These nations could lead the way in promoting democratic resilience as the global landscape changes.
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