Navigating the Pahalgam Terror Attack: Expert Insights on India’s Next Steps for National Security

Tensions Rise Along the Line of Control

New Delhi: For eight nights in a row, the Pakistan Army has violated the ceasefire along the Line of Control (LoC). On Thursday, they opened fire across various sectors in Jammu and Kashmir. This surge in hostility follows a tragic attack on April 22, where 26 civilians lost their lives in Baisaran valley, escalating tensions significantly.

Just hours after India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty on April 24, Pakistani forces intensified their attacks, particularly targeting the Pargwal sector along the International Border in Jammu.

What should India do next? We spoke with Major General (Retd) Dhruv Katoch about this critical situation.

"The horrific attack in Pahalgam by Pakistan-backed terrorists has prompted India to consider retaliatory measures. Pakistan’s recent aggression seems aimed at drawing international attention, hoping to discourage India from responding. However, India is likely to launch a military operation to deter future threats. They have informed major world powers about their concerns and are prepared to act at a suitable time and place," Katoch explained.

The Bigger Picture

What does this mean for global politics? Katoch commented, "The world has condemned the Pahalgam attack and is suspicious of Pakistan’s involvement. If India retaliates, it could trigger a counterstrike from Pakistan, potentially escalating into a serious conflict. While full-scale war isn’t inevitable, it’s a possibility that can’t be ignored. India needs to respond forcefully to terrorism but aims to keep the conflict below the threshold of war."

Pakistan’s Information Minister, Attaullah Tarar, stated they have intel suggesting an imminent military operation from India, following Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s statement granting the military complete operational freedom to respond to the attack.

Katoch highlighted a state of panic in Pakistan, reflecting its vulnerable position. "The nation is trying to secure international support to prevent Indian retaliation, especially given its economic struggles and internal unity issues," he noted.

Path Forward

Katoch suggested a resolution: "If Pakistan stops using terrorism as a tool of foreign policy, peace could follow. India must firmly respond to provocations while encouraging global powers to impose sanctions on Pakistan to prompt change."

Regarding China’s stance, Katoch predicted, "China has traditionally backed Pakistan and would continue to offer military support. Still, they are unlikely to directly engage if conflict escalates between India and Pakistan."

In the U.S., Vice President JD Vance expressed hopes for a measured Indian response to avoid a broader conflict. He stressed the need for Pakistan to collaborate with India to identify militants operating from its territory.

During a recent visit to India, Vance faced heightened concerns over the tensions between the two nuclear nations. He reiterated the importance of cooperation while maintaining communication with both countries.

In response to the recent attack, India has halted visa services for Pakistani nationals. The Ministry of External Affairs announced that all existing valid visas issued to Pakistanis are revoked, effective from April 27. Medical visas will only be valid until April 29, 2025. They also advised Indian nationals in Pakistan to return as soon as possible.

With tensions escalating, the future of India-Pakistan relations remains uncertain, underscoring the delicate balance required to navigate this ongoing conflict.

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