Astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson recently raised alarms about a massive asteroid set to approach Earth in 2032. Named 2024 YR4, this space rock is estimated to be between 130 and 300 feet wide. NASA gives it a 2.3% chance of striking the planet when it comes close on December 22, 2032. This chance has nearly doubled since it was first detected.
Tyson took to social media to emphasize the importance of funding scientific research that could help us prepare for potential threats from space. He noted that the asteroid has a one-in-fifty chance of hitting Earth within the next eight years. With such odds, he argued that now is not the time to cut science budgets.
If 2024 YR4 were to hit, the explosion would be equivalent to 7.7 megatons of TNT. That’s far more powerful than the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima during World War II. While experts say the chances of impact are still low, it’s crucial to monitor the asteroid closely for any changes that might increase its risk. This monitoring requires funding, which is currently uncertain.
The National Science Foundation, a major funding source for scientific research in the U.S., has frozen its approval process for new grants due to an executive order from the previous administration. Although a federal judge has put that order on hold, the NSF has yet to resume its funding activities. Many scientists are worried about potential cuts and what they might mean for the future of scientific research.
Fortunately, the asteroid was detected thanks to a NASA-funded project. It is about 27 million miles away and is at the top of NASA’s Sentry risk list for Near Earth Objects. Former astronaut Chris Hadfield suggested that 2024 YR4 is likely a collection of rocky materials that have come together over time. Due to its structure, he noted it may break apart upon entering Earth’s atmosphere, potentially causing damage in multiple areas instead of a singular impact.
This is why researchers refer to it as a “city-killer.” Even fragments big and small could wreak havoc, generating shockwaves capable of destroying cities. In 1908, the Tunguska event demonstrated the destructive power of an airborne explosion, equivalent to 50 million tons of TNT. Though 2024 YR4’s potential impact is smaller, it still poses a significant threat.
On a positive note, NASA is testing ways to deflect asteroids. In September 2022, they successfully altered an asteroid’s path using a spacecraft, marking a first step in the “kinetic impactor” method. If we act early enough, even a small change in an asteroid’s trajectory could help it avoid Earth entirely. As Hadfield said, this means we have the capability to protect our planet.
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