In the latest survey from the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies, Xavier Becerra holds a strong lead among candidates for California’s gubernatorial race, followed closely by Steve Hilton and Tom Steyer.
Mark DiCamillo, the poll director, noted that these three candidates are distinguishing themselves in a crowded field. Becerra is gaining support from Democrats, particularly after former Rep. Eric Swalwell dropped out of the race. On the Republican side, Hilton is receiving a boost from President Trump’s endorsement, solidifying his backing among GOP voters.
Recent data highlights a tight race. For example, a Public Policy Institute of California poll released shortly before showed Steyer trailing Hilton by 5 points and Becerra by 8. The timing of these surveys points to fluctuating voter sentiments, underlining the dynamic nature of the campaign.
Chad Bianco, the Sheriff of Riverside County, has seen a drop in support. He’s currently around 11%. His campaign faces difficulties as numbers decline. Historical trends suggest that it’s tough for candidates to rebound once support dwindles, especially this late in the race.
The race to succeed Gov. Gavin Newsom has led to increased spending among candidates. Steyer, a billionaire hedge fund manager, has poured a record $213 million into his campaign, while outside groups have spent significantly to oppose him.
The candidate landscape also includes notable figures like Democratic Mayor Matt Mahan, who has 4% support, and former mayors, Antonio Villaraigosa and Tony Thurmond, each with just 1%.
Concerns once loomed over a splintered Democratic field potentially allowing both Hilton and Bianco to progress to the general election. However, these worries lessened as Democratic voters began consolidating around Becerra and Steyer. In fact, 37% of likely GOP voters in the latest survey indicated Trump’s endorsement made them more likely to support Hilton.
Interestingly, Democratic ballot returns are lower this spring than in the last midterms. Currently, 44% of returned ballots are from Democrats, down from 53% in 2022. Republicans, however, have expanded their share, currently at 35%, up from 26%.
According to the survey, once ballots are cast, Hilton leads with 29% support, followed by Becerra at 20% and Steyer at 17%. Around 7% of voters remain undecided, indicating that shifts in support could still occur.
Voter preferences are also interesting: 70% of supporters for Bianco would choose Hilton as their second pick, while Porter’s supporters are more divided between Becerra and Steyer. As the campaign heads into its final stretch, these dynamics could change the outcome.
This election is shaping up to be one of California’s most competitive in years, and as past races have shown, anything can happen in the last days of campaigning. For additional insights, you can check resources from Political Data Inc. and UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies.
