New Pew Analysis Reveals Trump Would Still Prevail in 2024 Elections, Even with Maximum Voter Turnout

President Trump won the 2024 election with just under 50% of the votes, defeating Kamala Harris by a narrow margin of 49.7% to 48.2%. This victory came despite approximately 64% of eligible voters participating, marking the second-highest turnout since 1904. A study from the Pew Research Center highlights that if every eligible voter had cast their ballot, Trump would still have emerged victorious with 48% to Harris’s 45%.

Surprisingly, non-voters surveyed after the election indicated a preference for Trump over Harris, 44% to 40%. This is a notable shift from previous years. In 2020, non-voters preferred Joe Biden 46% to 35%, while in 2016, they favored Hillary Clinton 37% to 30%. This flips the common notion that higher voter turnout benefits Democrats.

Historically, Trump’s voter base has shifted as well. In 2016, about 88% of his supporters were white. By 2024, this number declined to 78%. Conversely, Harris’s voter base became whiter, with 64% of her supporters being white compared to 60% in 2016 for Clinton.

Pew’s research also found that Trump retained a greater portion of his 2020 voters (85%) compared to the 79% of Biden’s voters who backed Harris in 2024. Among Biden’s supporters, around 15% didn’t vote this time, while only 11% of Trump’s 2020 voters sat it out.

A significant number of 2020 non-voters decided to participate in this election. Trump won these new voters by a margin of 52% to 45%. This marks a shift in demographics and voting patterns that could reshape the political landscape in the coming years.

These trends reflect a changing electorate. New data from Pew indicates a more youthful and diverse coalition supporting Trump. This change might suggest a rethinking of strategies for both parties in addressing the evolving needs and concerns of voters.

For more on voter trends and behavior, you can check Pew Research’s analysis.

Source link