The world is getting hotter, and it’s impacting wildfire risks like never before. In the last 45 years, the number of days when conditions are just right for wildfires—hot, dry, and windy—has nearly tripled. This trend is especially noticeable in the Americas, and a significant portion of this change is tied to human-caused climate change. Researchers estimate that over half of the increase in extreme fire weather comes from our own actions.
As temperatures rise, there’s a greater chance that multiple regions will experience similar fire weather. This is a concerning development. Countries often lack the resources to combat numerous wildfires. Help might not be available if neighboring areas are facing their own blazes.
A recent study published in Science Advances highlights this alarming trend. In the late 20th century, from 1979 to 1994, the world averaged about 22 days of synchronous fire weather each year. Fast forward to 2023 and that number has soared to over 60 days. “These changes make it more likely that we will see fires that are incredibly hard to control,” warns John Abatzoglou, a fire scientist at the University of California, Merced.
The study mainly looked at weather conditions like strong winds and dry air. While weather plays a big part, it’s not the only factor. Other conditions like available fuel—trees, brush—and ignition sources such as lightning or human activity are crucial in the fire equation.
Mike Flannigan, a fire scientist at Thompson Rivers University in Canada, points out that the rising number of synchronous fire weather days is significant. Regions that once had distinct fire seasons are now overlapping, which complicates resource sharing during fire emergencies.
According to the study, over 60% of this alarming increase can be traced back to climate change resulting from fossil fuel use. Researchers utilized computer models to compare the past 45 years with a hypothetical world free from greenhouse gas emissions.
In practical terms, the U.S. has seen an uptick in these dangerous days as well. The average number of synchronous fire weather days in the continental U.S. jumped from 7.7 days per year in the late ’70s and ’80s to about 38 days annually in the last decade. Meanwhile, the southern half of South America experienced an even steeper rise, from an average of 5.5 days to over 70, with 118 days recorded in 2023 alone.
Interestingly, the only region that experienced a decrease in these fire-critical conditions over the same period is Southeast Asia. This likely has to do with rising humidity in that area.
As these climate trends intensify, it’s crucial to stay informed and proactive. Understanding the impact of our actions on climate can help us mitigate some of these risks before it’s too late. For more in-depth insights on climate change and wildfires, you can refer to studies from reputable sources like the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
