The recent study from Imperial College London sheds light on the stark reality of climate change and its relationship with hurricanes. Scientists have found that global warming, mainly caused by fossil fuel emissions, not only raises the chances of catastrophic storms but also makes them stronger.
Ralf Toumi, Director of the Grantham Institute at Imperial, emphasized the limitations countries face in preparing for such disasters. Even with Jamaica’s experience in handling storms, he notes that “adaptation to climate change is vital, but it’s not enough. We must also stop greenhouse gas emissions.”
Recent findings show that a hurricane like Melissa, which struck Jamaica, would have happened only every 8,100 years in cooler, pre-industrial times. Now, due to global warming, that frequency has shot up to about every 1,700 years. This increase highlights how urgent the situation is as the Earth has warmed by around 1.3°C (2.3°F) since pre-industrial times. Scientists warn that crossing the 1.5°C threshold could lead to dire consequences.
The study also revealed that the warming has boosted hurricane wind speeds by about 19 km/h (12 mph), a rise of 7%. If temperatures reach 2°C above pre-industrial levels, winds might increase by another 26 km/h, making storms even more powerful.
Hurricane Melissa was a testament to these findings, bringing 76 cm (30 inches) of rain and wind gusts of up to 295 km/h (185 mph). Toumi stated, “Man-made climate change clearly made Hurricane Melissa stronger and more destructive.” Interestingly, the damage was so extensive that even higher storm intensity might not have noticeably increased the destruction.
However, the researchers faced challenges, particularly with climate data access due to the U.S. government shutdown, which hindered their understanding of rainfall patterns. Preliminary estimates from Enki Research indicated that the storm caused around $7.7 billion in damages, roughly 40% of Jamaica’s GDP. Recovery could take a decade, and this figure doesn’t include losses from tourism and commercial operations, which could add several billion more.
As the climate crisis deepens, it becomes clear that immediate action on emissions is crucial to mitigate future devastating storms.
For more in-depth insights, you can refer to the study published by Imperial College London here.
